Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4057)	7/16/2002 12:36:02 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Hi Sam, How can I ignore psychology? It is most evident at the top and the bottom and it is easy to talk about. How can I ignore history? Those who ignore it are doomed to relive it! Well both historical and psychological analysis have there limitations and both must be accurately placed in the current environment. The key variable in the current environment is the pace of technological development. The incessant doubling called for in Moore's Law illustrates the pace. The pace will roll over forecasts based on history and psychology. I held stock from 1970 to 1983. I remember what happened. I saw every Wall Street Week from its inception in 1970 until Robert Nurock and the elves were tossed off because they missed 1987. Today, every bankruptcy and scandal disturbs the market, but it is just debris clearing so we can get on with the future. The lesson for all is that the only "goose that lays the golden egg" is individual hard work. Don't follow gurus. The only valuable knowledge is what you know and understand completely yourself. If you can't know completely, then that is why bets are hedged. Know what you know and what you don't know and hedge accordingly. You can hedge for uncertainty and to help sleep at night. Investing ones assets should be a custom reflection of the individual. Institutions and gurus profit more if they can convince many that "one size fits all". Yesterday's bear suit fits fine today and tomorrow. It doesn't, but it makes it easier to publish the copy on time.