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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4058)	7/16/2002 3:32:17 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

Cary, Gottfried: Just accidentally lost a painstakingly researched post in which I collected the names of many companies along with their '72-3 highs, '74 lows and pre 8/82 subsequent highs all within the context of the "secular bear market" that occured in the Dow from '66 to '82. There were alot of them from nearly all industries, not confined to tech by any means, though not lacking in tech by any means either. Typical example: Carlisle Corp (a roofing materials company) went from high of 6.5 in '73 to 2.38 in '74 before climbing remarkably steadily to 52 in '81. Hardly what you would expect from a "bear market". Sure wish I had the '66-70 charts for individual companies for I am assuming the '66 peak was far surpassed during the explosive '74-'81 rally that occured in so many companies, and I am uncomfortable making such assumptions. Another flaw in looking over these '71-'82 charts is survivor bias. The companies that folded naturally have their own database. But what I thought most noteworthy is (1) that so many industries participated which made me wonder, Cary, why you speak so disparagingly of non-tech, as though they have to be cooking the books if they report a profit. Sure Moore's Law is a nice advantage, but (1) it only helps if it is not widely recognized and baked into the valuation and (2) since it is shared by all the semis and equips, it does not help one whit in placing one company at any competitive advantage as they inevitable battle for turf within the industry. So is it really worth sacrificing the potential safety of diversification to worship at the alter of Moore's Law, or might it be worth taking a serious look at competitive strategic advantage beyond the confines of tech? For G, the most interesting finding I think is that the capitulation that was needed for so many companies did not occur until almost the precise midpoint of the '66-'82 secular bear market, 1974. Was it just impossible to muster a sense of capitulation during the Vietnam War, as things just went from bad to worse and the demonstrations against Johnson and the War just turned uglier or was it something else? What will it take to achieve it this time around? Sam