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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6182)	7/18/2002 2:04:24 AM
From: chojiro	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

<<... my guess is about 2pts downside max. (just a guess)>> Lizzy, from your #11 quote, it will probably see the low 9s tomorrow- maybe lower, but probably not so soon. <<)... software should follow in about 6 mos.>> What if it doesn't? What if the CSCOs, EXTRs you mention slow down further? And what happens to the $2B cash if profits begin to dwindle? And what if SEBL has to report a loss(pro forma!) in the near future? And as far as valuation, what if options were required to be reported as expenses? If you go back and account for the options granted(dilution) SEBL has been losing massive EPS. Still one of the Q&A's (heather Bellini) got Tom to admit that Q4 should be better than forecast. I must have missed that part(I did hang up during the Q&A). All I gathered from Tom was optimistically, Q4 would be like Q3 which he stated would beat be comparable to Q2, or "It might be worse than Q2." And from the CC, Q2 saw only 3 deals go through in the $5M range vs. 12 deals in the $5M range last Q. And the trend is towards lower $ deals of which there were 51 deals gone off in the $1-3M range vs. 63 in Q4(do I have my historical Qs correct? my notes are a bit scribbled) So the trend is towards lower dollar deals which too are becoming more scarce.