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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (121829)7/19/2002 6:48:15 PM
From: waverider  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
>>>Certainly it's easier to rely on the generally top quality management at QCOM to look out for investors.<<<

pro forma speaking...

wr



To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (121829)7/20/2002 12:50:49 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
foreign stock losses are 10% higher than american losses now
foreign bond losses are about 5% net since early spring

the question for QCOM is whether cellphone sales will amount to squat in the midst of a world recession that will surely worsen with the declining dollar

the most disappointing awareness issue is that the great majority of investors fail to realize that the declining dollar, if carried to the next stage of devaluation, will open the door to a world banking crisis, the proportions of which have never been seen before in our lifetimes
the fact that we have seen dollar declines before has conditioned the masses to expect NO BIG DEAL, SIMPLE ADJUSTMENT

but they totally overlook the level of foreign held US TB debt
that is the lynchpin
entire foreign economies depend upon US markets to buy their production
now that production will be sold but without profit
or vastly shrinking profit, if the dollar decline continues

imagine just Thailand, which owns a scad of TBonds
they little banking system is vulnerable now
their reserve assets just dropped 8-10%
how will that affect their economy?
not good, not good at all, maybe devastating

QCOM has held up nicely
now higher than at certain points in time this spring
it is acting like MSFT and CSCO, bigtime kudo

you dont think real estate might do well from here, do you?
time to put on the spectacles and discern that housing is next on the Grand Deflation Chopping Block

and the Treasury credit market might be under attack soon

the awesome characteristic of debt collapse is that it works like dominos, taking out and taking down the easy targets first
e.g. telecom, dotcoms
then it takes down severely the hyped
e.g. fiberoptic, networkers, computerdom
then it takes out other weaklings
e.g. KMart, Ames
then the debt abusers
e.g. WorldCom, and 350k individuals per quarter
then it devalues those operating under a mountain of debt
e.g. myriad S&P firms, Dow utilities
then it devalues the safe havens
e.g. Dow 30

next it will devalue the safe havens thought most safe
e.g. Treasurys, Real Estate

the recovery cannot begin until the process works its way thru ALL asset classes built atop DEBT

the sharp contrast between S&P and CRB points out the magnificent paradigm shift toward commodities, which does not operate to a great extent under debt
/ jim