To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (121829 ) 7/20/2002 12:50:49 AM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472 foreign stock losses are 10% higher than american losses now foreign bond losses are about 5% net since early spring the question for QCOM is whether cellphone sales will amount to squat in the midst of a world recession that will surely worsen with the declining dollar the most disappointing awareness issue is that the great majority of investors fail to realize that the declining dollar, if carried to the next stage of devaluation, will open the door to a world banking crisis, the proportions of which have never been seen before in our lifetimes the fact that we have seen dollar declines before has conditioned the masses to expect NO BIG DEAL, SIMPLE ADJUSTMENT but they totally overlook the level of foreign held US TB debt that is the lynchpin entire foreign economies depend upon US markets to buy their production now that production will be sold but without profit or vastly shrinking profit, if the dollar decline continues imagine just Thailand, which owns a scad of TBonds they little banking system is vulnerable now their reserve assets just dropped 8-10% how will that affect their economy? not good, not good at all, maybe devastating QCOM has held up nicely now higher than at certain points in time this spring it is acting like MSFT and CSCO, bigtime kudo you dont think real estate might do well from here, do you? time to put on the spectacles and discern that housing is next on the Grand Deflation Chopping Block and the Treasury credit market might be under attack soon the awesome characteristic of debt collapse is that it works like dominos, taking out and taking down the easy targets first e.g. telecom, dotcoms then it takes down severely the hyped e.g. fiberoptic, networkers, computerdom then it takes out other weaklings e.g. KMart, Ames then the debt abusers e.g. WorldCom, and 350k individuals per quarter then it devalues those operating under a mountain of debt e.g. myriad S&P firms, Dow utilities then it devalues the safe havens e.g. Dow 30 next it will devalue the safe havens thought most safe e.g. Treasurys, Real Estate the recovery cannot begin until the process works its way thru ALL asset classes built atop DEBT the sharp contrast between S&P and CRB points out the magnificent paradigm shift toward commodities, which does not operate to a great extent under debt / jim