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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83311)	7/20/2002 2:04:26 PM
From: Eddy Blinker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INSANE

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83311)	7/20/2002 2:21:32 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

We'll see, soon, just how exceptionally cruel this bear can be. You're not the only one, Tom, who thinks an excellent trading low, if not necessarily THE bottom, is shaping up. Though the tone has been decidedly negative for quite some time, though a number of "traditional" contrarian indicators are lined up, as you've enumerated, there are still a number of people, like yourself, who've been stepping forward, either as traders or as value investors, and have announced various levels of conviction (from "beginning to scale in" to "err on the side of purchases" to "plenty of good values"). I'm a daytrader, so I'll just pick and choose my moments, short or long, and otherwise watch the show, but, if I had to place a bet, I'd probably side with you all. Still, as I'm sure you're aware, there are several "crashes come from oversold levels" scenarios out there also. It's quite possible, for instance, that the bear-bearing magazine covers and distraught trader photos are appearing relatively near a bottom - in time and price - but only as seen from a very long-term horizon within which 500 or a 1000 points or five weeks or five months one way or another won't seem like much. And it's possible that many of the indicators you've described will turn out to be "broken" or for all intents and purposes irrelevant this time around. Right now, this bear is already a pretty big bear by some measures. Though I wish you and the rest of the long swingers and investors the best of luck, I have to admit that a part of me - the same part of me that enjoys record-setting sports performances but also finds human tragedies and natural disasters fascinating - would get a kick out of a "whoosh" Monday that DIDN'T reverse, disappointing and breaking the latest and perhaps last wave of volunteers assembling for mass assaults on the bear pillboxes and trenches. Where's your stop?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83311)	7/20/2002 2:25:38 PM
From: chainik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Oh man, you have balls made of some very hard material. I am 50% long and still will need a pack of diapers on Monday.

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83311)	7/20/2002 4:19:38 PM
From: HiSpeed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

YTD July 20: Model is up 4% vs qqq down 39%. So why not just "short & hold" for a while (on next rally) as opposed to buy-n-hold. LT, I think dow should see 4-5000s; DAQ <1000 JMO

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83311)	7/20/2002 4:39:15 PM
From: David W. Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom, What a lot of sweat! Here is my strategy as a comparison. I pulled the lever once on 11/1/2001 for a $50,000 buy of Rydex URSA (symbol RYURX). That bought me a 4,438.33 shares at $11.14 each. Last night July 19, 2002, RYRUX stood at $14.00. On 12/7/2001, the fund paid me a dividend of 18.374 shares at $10.41. Last night my shares were worth $64,015.72 for a gain of just over $14,000 or a return of 13.92%, or an annualized gain of 20.98%. I didn't sweat, curse, mumble or use a fancy model. The model is clear. There was a bubble and it will fall as irrationally far as it went up. I'm sitting waiting for the inevitable "summer rally" before it plummets again. I will probably wait until the market goes up 10% from here and sell the fund. By September I will be back in RYURX. Even if I miss the "top", I will be able to sleep at night. Look for 4,000 on the Dow, 600 on the Nasdaq and 400 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2003. David