Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (15325)	7/20/2002 3:13:32 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Your eqporders.gif is telling an interesting tale. Look at the difference/distance between the btb and the billings/orders lines. We haven't seen this type of distance since 1995. I think it is telling us that we should see a substantial improvement in billings going forward and one should expect that the worst for this segment of the industry is behind us. As always, thanks for the charts! Keep up the good work.

To: Gottfried who wrote (15325)	7/20/2002 3:41:17 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried, that's awesome! When I saw your charts before, I didn't notice that you have the bookings and billings broken out -- otherwise I wouldn't have bothered with my own pathetic little effort!

To: Gottfried who wrote (15325)	7/20/2002 6:26:38 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried, re:>seen the Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill lately?? Yet I keep reading here on SI from people that the B-to-B is a "fluke", and the billings will get canceled in a few months. They are willing to set aside hard numbers for a gut feeling.< Here is a guy flailing away looking for reasons to debunk the BtoB: Message 17767137 This is better, from IHUB: <<<Zeev... Good call on the btb - I was not sure if the things I have been hearing would be in this month's report or not. As for myself, I am confident from my sources that the fundamentals of the equipment sector are once again beginning to deteriorate, and thus will be likely to look elsewhere for rally candidates. That certainly does not mean they cannot be winners in a rally since all are high beta stocks that have been stronger than the rest of the market so far. What worries me most is that some of the biggest names (like AMAT) report next month and a warning or two could come at any time, which would hurt the entire group. >>> LOL!!! This guy has "sources" which in his view carry more weight than actual hard numbers. Here is someone who has so firmly convinced himself of the bearish cause, that he is not mentally capable of accepting any positive economic news. Now, I am not saying that the markets will not tank to NAZ 800 or DOW 6000 in a few months, but this guy would be better off citing some article saying something about time when the stock market sucked despite a robust economy. Here is another thing that has been bugging me: people keep looking at trailing PE's when coming up with these NAZ PE ratios. The trailing PEs are nearly meaningless. Last year was one of the worst on record, slumping sales resulted in a hit to the bottom line for tech companies. Then throw on restructuring costs. So now you are left with lean mean tech companies. Once again in the near future we will see the outlandish headlines "XXX Technologies earnings improves 800%" as modest sales increases of 15-20% flow primarily to the bottom line. Instead of earning .02 per share, companies earn .16 per share. The company is not growing 800%, but the earnings when compared to the toughest year on record should appear to be astonishing. Warp

To: Gottfried who wrote (15325)	7/20/2002 10:45:55 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried, re your SEMI charts. Is it okay with you if I upload them to my web space so I can show them to some people? I'd really like to get Zeev's take on them, for example, but I know you're having problems with your web provider already, and I don't want to overload your bandwidth. By the way, I have another comment, which is that the way the billings trend line seems to be rolling over flat looks pretty frightening.

To: Gottfried who wrote (15325)	7/21/2002 6:40:11 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried, The billings can't get cancelled - SAB101 was designed to address that very issue! A better argument can be made that the billings part of the btb is underestimating true demand. 'Under SAB101 suppliers recognize revenue on equipment only after they receive final customer sign-off based on the formal acceptance and integration of equipment - a process which may take up to 6 months. This is in contrast to the previous reporting where revenue recognition happened on shipment.'