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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38196)	7/21/2002 12:39:42 PM
From: J D B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Interesting analysis Haim. I think that this must be viewed in light of the overall basket of investment opportunites. It seems that equities really can't maintain prices that generate returns (including dividends) that are inferior to other investment returns - this "equalization" or return to the mean appears to be what's going on now. What other investment opportunities exist, and what are the risks associated?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38196)	7/21/2002 3:20:48 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Thanks for your post, Haim. I reposted it on another thread, hope you don't mind. Since I work in manufacturing automation, I believe many of these points in your post to be true (the inventory turn related stuff, not the employment numbers no real opinion there). But anyway I don't want to drink my own kool aid so I try to gauge conventional wisdom on the matter. One analogy I am looking for (but never found) is Japan in the 80s vs USA in the 90s manufacturing productivity. Many of Japan's successes in the 80s came from their adherance to (then) sophisticated manufacturing techniques, in the 90s the US leapfrogged Japan by employing these same concepts in technology. Japan never quite "got" software and missed the boat, I've felt this was at the core of their inability to recover. Lizzie

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38196)	7/21/2002 4:06:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Couple thoughts Haim. How sustainable are earnings today? Does anyone believe PEG estimates? Does investing at these higher PEs (as it seems from your viewpoint) accurately reflect the risks of debt implosion, derrivative failures, pension underfunding as well as pension assumptions, currency failures? Do the PEs we see reflect the effect of stock options? Is the risk on the downside or the upside at these levels? If all the above is factored in, then yes higher PEs are warranted based on inflation and other factors (assuming again that inflation stays low and bond rates stay low), wow even more assumptions. Am I correct or am I missing something? M

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38196)	7/21/2002 11:00:05 PM
From: steve wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Does anyone know of a source of historical data for the DOW, S&P500, Nasdaq from the 1920's or when they were first created? Or even from the 1960's. Preferably from an Internet source and free. Steve

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38196)	7/24/2002 10:05:08 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Interesting concept but I don't see what inventory turn ratios have to do with the bottom line. I mean a PE ratio is a pretty simple formula, Price over Earnings. IN other words, I dont care how many times he turns inventory, if it is truly more effecient, then the earnings part should reflect that. If the earnings are the same but inventory turns are higher, then it is just trying to put rose colored glasses on everyone and sell a new pardigm story in a new wrapper. Stocks are all about earnings. it doesn't matter if KO sells one can of coke for a 1000000000000% mark up or turns 1000 trillion cans with a lower percentage mark up, it all comes down to how much earnings or profit did KO get and how much of that will I get down the road as a stock holder. Anything else is just spin to stall people from selling until I get my shares gone first. -ggg- Good Luck, Lee