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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (13668)	7/22/2002 1:31:29 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 19219

J.T., why do you think that public shorted? Could it be that public just sold? Thanx

To: J.T. who wrote (13668)	7/22/2002 9:35:49 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

OK JT, now for something completely different, my turn for a SWAG at this. I say that, cause I actually have a ton of cash on the sidelines to commit, and that's what counts now. Maybe I'll blow my wad too, but now with VIX at 48, and the ten day trailing put call ratio at .86, we are about where we need it for a good countertrend rally starting before end of week. It's a go once we see the dipsters absent the second hour "catch a falling knife" bidding. Maybe they've been conditioned by now not to buy the opening? Maybe they'll pass tomorrow? The next day? If they're in there pass, otherwise buy Joe and Martha Sixpack's last hour fund liquidation and that will mark the launch point. The SPX will lag though, as will the large cap NASDAQ, as it will be a sector play. Favored groups: energy and biotech. Smaller tech will catch a bid too. Exit as soon as VIX dips below 30, and the PC below .50. Rally will then fade back near the launch point, and then we go into an extended quiet period, a basing action with a slight downward bias that may last the rest of the year. One group that continues to move higher: energy. Message 17550089

To: J.T. who wrote (13668)	7/23/2002 1:28:44 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Birinyi just mentioned a derivation of what I have been talking about for weeks: The orgy of public shorting above the members is now at 51% of total shorting volume and the highest it has been in years. Birinyi said the low is in. And still not yet... Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (13668)	7/25/2002 1:49:17 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

On August 17, 1982, the melt-up began very similar to todays action. First, the day of the '82 launch, the market registered the highest single point up day in history as the DOW closed up 38.81 points. On this trading day, July 24, 2002, the DOW posted its second largest point gain ever of up 488.95 points only surpassed by the 499 single point up day on March 16, 2000. Today was the second biggest percentage gain ever rising 6.4% since the second day after the crash on October 21, 1987, when the DOW rose 9.2%. Both days action, the 1987 melt-up and today, occurred on a Wednesday. Second, and more importantly, todays action in 2002 was on the highest recorded volume ever. This was preceded by record volume of 2 billion plus shares the last three days. On August 17, 1982, the launch was the second highest recorded volume ever - which was barely under the all time high volume of that day on January 7, 1981. August 17, 1982 was a Tuesday. January 7, 1981 was a Wednesday and was a down day. The first trading day after the melt-up on August 17, 1982, the DOW and SPX both were down slightly for the day as gains were consolidated. Third, there are skeptics today in the news reports just like there was in 1982. Fourth, there was institutional panic and major short covering in both time periods. ************** Some differences: 1)Today, NYSE Members have accumulated 1.3 Billion shares of stock. No major accumulation of any kind in 1982. 2)Public Shorting is rampant today as they have outshorted the specialists 28 straight weeks. 3)According to the ECRI, the economy has been telegraphing recovery for roughly 6 months, unlike the 1982 economic action. I will add to this list as time goes on. Best regards, J.T.