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To: RR who wrote (54029)8/1/2002 1:18:12 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Ord Oracle: What to expect now.

A bullish candlestick pattern called a "Gapping two White Candles" formed on July 29 and 30th. This pattern is a continuation pattern and predicts higher prices. What normally happens with this pattern is that the market will pull back and fill the gap that formed this bullish pattern and then head higher. To fill this gap, the S&P would need to pull back near 855. A "Selling Climax" did form on July 24 and an up-trend has begun that may last several weeks. The Summation index on the NYSE is now trending up and implies the trend is now up. We will look to go long near the gap at the 855 area on the S&P. Our upside target will be near the 935 level. The 935 level is near where the 1998 and 2001 lows are and should provide stiff resistance. The 935 level may be where the next intermediate term sell signal gets generated. But first things first, we will watch the 855 area for the next potential buy signal.

A source to get put/call ratios and VIX readings on many index’s including the QQQ is an excellent site called hamzeianalytics.com.

The NDX also drew the bullish candlestick pattern called "Gapping Two White Candles". The same prediction implies in that the NDX should pull back and fill the gap that created this pattern and the gap should act as support. To fill this gap the NDX would need to pull back near the 920 level. The "Summation Index" on the Nasdaq has turned up also and implies the trend is now up. We will watch the 920 area on the NDX for signs of a short-term bottom. Our upside target will be near the 1060 level, which is the 1998 and 2001 lows and should provide stiff resistance. We covered 1/2 of our QQQ short position today at 23.60 and 1/2 at 23.65 for an average gain of 1.6%. We are now flat. The 22.80 on the QQQ is where the gap is left open and may be the next area for a reversal back up. We could get a buy signal near the 23 level on the QQQ.

The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms. Short term the XAU surprised us by going lower then expected. The HUI Gold index hit it's 200 DMA (which is trending up) and bounced off, which is a bullish sign. With the 200 DMA moving up in most gold stocks, this implies the gold stocks are still in an up trend. We think that we are ending Wave (2) of a massive Wave 3 up that started at the November 2001 low. The 200 DMA should provide good support on most gold stocks. HL has its 200 DMA near 2.30. We are long from 1.04. BGO has 200 DMA near .75. We are long at 1.03. ECO is below its 200 DMA, which is at .79. We are long at .92. ASA has its 200 DMA at 26.25. Drooy has its 200 DMA at 2.80. We are long Drooy from 1.06. We remain bullish on gold stocks.

Tim has traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980's. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. A contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine in which he presented a new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called "uptick" and "downticks" He was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995. His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TV in Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio, (radio station in Florida). At the helm of a trading advisory called The Ord Oracle, Tim Ord makes specific S&P index and NDX index recommendations (along with intermediately QQQ or OEX option trades) via hotline updates and email & fax service. "Timer Digest" had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.

ord-oracle.com



To: RR who wrote (54029)8/1/2002 2:21:45 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Investing is like sailing; one cannot control the wind, but one absolutely must adjust to it.



To: RR who wrote (54029)8/5/2002 2:21:35 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Blame It On the CEOs

Robert F. Froehlke assesses the changes in business practices—and mindsets—over the last two decades

By Jordan Heimer
NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE

msnbc.com

Aug. 2 — To mark the 30th anniversary of My Turn, the weekly column written by NEWSWEEK’s readers, we’re republishing highlights from the past three decades, year by year. Accompanying each piece is an update on the author. This week, we revisit Robert F. Froehlke, 79, a former president of the American Council of Life Insurance. He wrote in 1981 about his concerns about excessive government regulation of business.

IN RETROSPECT, ROBERT F. Froehlke finds his 21-year-old arguments almost quaint. Froehlke, a former secretary of the Army and president of the American Council of Life Insurance, wrote in 1981 that government should moderate its regulation of business. “It was sort of an intellectual argument,” recalls Froehlke, “about how to determine the price of life insurance. The public wasn’t interested.”
In his My Turn, Froehlke saw the issue of cost disclosure in life-insurance policies as a case of overzealous government regulation—an example of how skewed media coverage and excessive drive by a regulatory agency ended up costing the industry and consumers millions of dollars. “Regulations not only protect the public against irresponsible entrepreneurs, but they also give responsible businesses a better chance to compete with those who would observe no ground rules whatsoever, if they could,” he wrote at the time. But, he added, “there are just too many regulations and too many regulators that go beyond the role of umpire to pursue their views of social perfection at the expense of economic good.”

Corporate America, of course, has changed dramatically since then. And given the recent spate of accounting scandals, Froehlke does not believe those changes are for the better. Today, he is no longer so critical of federal regulators. “I think if I was going to write an article today, I would say there are villains,” says Froehlke—a retreat from his previous argument that there were no evil officers, only adversaries. “The villains are obviously the CEOs, the CFOs and the accountants. The fact that they are relatively few in number has really nothing to do with it, because our capitalistic society is so dependent on trust.” Froehlke believes corruption affects the economy especially adversely because it damages investor confidence. “The investor has to believe that their information is good, and that the accountants are doing a good job.”
While the CEOs of companies involved in accounting fraud have been written about repeatedly, Froehlke believes the criticism has not been evenly distributed. “Management is too often overlooked. I don’t hear too much criticism of boards of directors. If I was on the board of Enron, on the board of Global Crossings or WorldCom, I would be hanging my head in shame, and particularly if I was on the audit committee.” It is not that Froehlke wants to see more names dragged through the mud, but that he thinks accountability is essential to restoring confidence in the economy. “Investors are not going to invest unless they think management is doing a good job for them, not for the CEO and the CFO.”
Couldn’t these scandals have occurred during the hands-off days of the Reagan administration as well? No, says Froehlke. “I believe there has been a change in attitude. How in the world can you justify some of the incomes of corporate officers? And I’m not speaking of people who make $1 million. But when they get up to hundreds of millions of dollars, that is just plain greed. How do you explain that to the investor? [The high amount] doesn’t really affect the company that much, but it does affect the psychology of stock holders.”
In 1981, Froehlke accused the media of occasionally being counterproductive to the process of writing laws, whipping up a furor over an issue that pressed politicians into passing regulations without fully understanding the issues. However, in 2002, where the line between good and evil is more clearly drawn, Froehlke has softened his criticism of the media. “Unfortunately, the negative sells and the positive doesn’t. That’s human nature. But I think the media has done a pretty good job. If I were writing it would be equally harsh.”

However, Froehlke is not a fatalist. Amidst the recent trend of heralding the death of capitalism, or the erosion of American economy, Froehlke still believes in the system. “I suppose greed is endemic to human nature. But not just to capitalism. Look at China. Look at the U.S.S.R. As long as you have humans you are going to have a certain amount of problems.” And Froehlke believes that as the Enrons and Tycos of the corporate world make up a small fraction of the business world, the right government action could go a long way to restoring investor confidence. “I think the Sarbanes’ bill [on corporate reform] is going to go a long way toward solving the accounting problem. And I think the regulation is good.”
Froehlke also believes that President George W. Bush is a “good human being” who needs to answer questions about his sale of shares in Harken Energy weeks ahead of bad news that drove down the stock prices. “Full disclosure is going to solve an awful lot of problems,” he says. “When you don’t disclose, human beings suspect. If you fully disclose, there is nothing to suspect.”
As to the future of government regulation, Froehlke is confident that some positives will come out of the last few months. “I was reading in the paper the other day that GE has joined a number of other companies in [voluntarily] treating stock options as an expense. I think that is very important. I think loans to officers absolutely should not be allowed. I think that very tight regulations are needed on when officers of a corporation can sell their stock. We should tax outrageous salaries.” And Froehlke has his own wry views about corporate duties. “It isn’t that the boards of directors are dishonest, but I don’t think they realize how much responsibility they have. I think the trial lawyers will very soon impress upon them how much responsibility they have.”