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To: kapkan4u who wrote (85649)	7/23/2002 11:36:52 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: I think that a rate cut at this point would really spook the market Well, there's always that risk. But if a rate cut (or two) can bring another wave of refinancings, it will add some liquidity to the economy. It also has the benefit of making stocks more valuable, since stock valuation is often benchmarked against bond returns. Real interest rates continue to be fairly high, and Greenspan knows that you have to pull the string before the economy can be helped only by pushing. Concern is beginning to build that we are approaching that point where the interest rate "tool" loses its effectiveness - people have to be willing to borrow and lend. I can tell you, anecdotally, that I'm seeing a somewhat larger than usual end-of-the-fiscal-year surge of spend-it-now demands for federally funded projects. That fiscal shove, plus a monetary tug from Greenspan, might be enough to get things started back up. We can hope.

To: kapkan4u who wrote (85649)	7/24/2002 8:15:53 AM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, Re: <Larry Kudlow on... > We are past the point, IMO, where rate cuts will have much effect. It is looking to me like we are heading into Robert J. Shillers version of the economy. We shall see. There are good arguments that the economy of HERE is picking up. Asia isn't looking TOO bad(down around 2% overnight -- but you can't annualize those kinds of things). Anyhow, I'm heading for the hills. Gonna sell the whole Mess at the open this morning. Tim's position has attracted me greatly. Message 17782949 This may mark CAPITULATION -tgp