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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (85685)	7/24/2002 12:26:54 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe, Re: "Suppose AMD sells $25M of these "beta" chips and something goes wrong (which is becoming increasingly unlikely with CPUs). The potential liability of AMD is in the $25M ballpark, and it can be easily absorbed. Successful conclusion of this "pilot" period will allow AMD to sell let's say 200M worth of Hammer chips, which would have been risky for an initial release, but after the pilot, it is a lot less risky." AMD already launches products in low volume. It's what you call a "paper launch", and they have become quite good at it. I suppose it's their way of "reducing risk". wbmw

To: Joe NYC who wrote (85685)	7/24/2002 12:36:47 PM
From: bacchus_ii	Respond to of 275872

*RE:"Suppose AMD sells $25M of these "beta" chips and something goes wrong (which is becoming increasingly unlikely with CPUs)."* That would be better than paper launch maybe but the big caveat here is the Osborn effect. Gottfried

To: Joe NYC who wrote (85685)	7/24/2002 2:12:33 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

I think the debugging potential of selling 50-100K of low-GHz Hammers is nil. They could get better info by shipping them to OEMs and review sites like Anand. Let the OEMs and reviewers test the he!! out of them. Rather, I think this low-volume release leak is a smokescreen for the real thing happening much sooner than January. That would totally explain why AMD almost stopped shipping Tbreds and Palominos to the channel. Stretching out the Hammer release into two phases -- a few ~1.2 GHz chips and then lots of 2 GHz chips would have a profound Osborne effect -- totally drying up demand for K7's between the releases. Petz