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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (34954)	7/24/2002 8:36:47 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

oil vs. wind: The adoption of various technologies typically follows an S-shaped curve (adoption vs. time). We are, today, right in the beginning of the steep part of the curve, for wind power. I had thought that solar would "grow up" first, but it's wind. Installed capacity is growing at 30-40%/year (from a small base). Even with the huge subsidies for oil and nuclear (larger than those for all alternative energy sources, by orders of magnitude), wind is now competitive with oil, in many markets. You will soon be seeing a lot more of it. Moving populations: it can be done; it has been done, many times. The reason Europe (Balkans aside) has had ethnic peace for the last 50 years, is precisely because they moved many millions in the 1940s, to create ethnically pure nations. Ask the Czecks how they moved the Germans out of the Sudetenland (part of Bohemia), if you want to know how it can be done without violence. And the recent increase in ethnic tensions in Europe, is because they have, over the last 20 years, allowed in large un-assimilable immigrant groups, a decision they are now regretting. re: Bin Laden, with nukes: when that happens, the U.S. will have a choice: disengage totally, or engage totally. Withdraw support from all our client states in the Middle East, or nuke everywhere he might be hiding. All or nothing, no other options. I hope someone is thinking about this and planning, because, when the time comes, the decision will have to be made quickly. The best choice, of course, would be to manage things so we never have to make that choice. Prevention is always the best medicine.