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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (65083)7/25/2002 12:29:33 PM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
"Answer to your question. Look at 2 times book for AMAT, KLAC, NVLS. At that price, "mother of all buying opps"."

Are we at 2X today?



To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (65083)7/25/2002 2:17:49 PM
From: Dale Knipschield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
Cary,

Where did you get your book value for AMAT. Looking at MULTEX, they show about $4.76/sh.

Does this in an way agree with your estimate?

Thanks,

Knip



To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (65083)7/25/2002 6:12:56 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Look at 2 times book for AMAT, KLAC, NVLS. At that price, "mother of all buying opps".

Can you shed some light on historical ranges of P/B for these stocks? What would constitute bottom of historical ranges for the other 5 on your list?

I think it is unrealistic to expect your companies not to be influenced by a secular bear market. These are cyclical companies with very high betas. They are very sensitive to changes in overall market direction. In spite of sound longterm fundamentals, investors may be spooked by the volatility and temporarily cause the markets to "overshoot on the downside" as they liquidate or simply refrain from buying even at historical bargain levels. Others will simply be unable to respond to bargain-hunting opportunities because they are out of cash.

It is remarkable that in spite of the severe correction, your 8 stocks have not yet hit lower lows than they reached in previous cycles. Considering that this is the first cycle in many without the bubble tailwind, that is quite an achievement.

Sam



To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (65083)8/3/2002 6:01:01 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Cary: Re: "I don't think a secular bear, 16 years or less, is at all relevant to the semis and semi-equips and probably not to the economy."

Disagree.

Re: "The engine that drove the expansion from '82 is still revving up. We are dealing with the bubble aftermath and tech business is still slow."

Seems like you are suggesting that a "bubble aftermath" and any "secular bear market" are mutually exclusive. I don't see it that way at all.


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