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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (65217)	8/3/2002 8:21:39 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

I am a mathematician by training, so I definitely didn't mean to suggest that "bubble aftermath" and "secular bear market" are "mutually exclusive". The first is my collective term for the correction to business and market excesses. The second is a scary term that suggests that markets will not make new highs for something like 16 years, the length of the 1966 - 1982 "bear". I suspect that the NASDAQ will not top 5000 for a while. A 4-bagger for the whole index in 10 years would be very good, so something in the range of 10-16 years is probably reasonable. A 4-bagger for the leading semis and semi-equips will probably happen by the 2007-8 time frame, 5 to 6 years. In conclusion, I would rather deal with real problems, "the bubble aftermath", than with ill defined definitions meant to scare people, "the secular bear".