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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (13823)	7/26/2002 3:38:33 PM
From: CYBERKEN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

That's the problem with watching for capitulation. No one knows what a contemporary capitulation really looks like. All the capitulations in history have only been recognized and described well after the fact. Someone can say" We're in a capitulation." and it's as speculative as saying "We're in a bull market." Only with hindsight can it be proved right or wrong...

To: Softechie who wrote (13823)	7/26/2002 3:42:22 PM
From: CYBERKEN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

The "next" capitulation has been describedspeculatively-as 10's of millions of small investors calling all at once to put their 401k's into money market investments. My experience is the the majority of people with 401k's look at them infrequently, and when they hear about falling markets, they decide that it has nothing to do with what their 401k value will be when they reach 59 1/2. I think market watchers waiting for the mass of small investors from the new 'investor class' to stampede, will be waiting for the duration...

To: Softechie who wrote (13823)	7/27/2002 12:49:30 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Great post. Here is what resonates with me: 1)The broad consensus is that a dramatic low or collapse of confidence is needed before the market is ready to resume an upward course following a deep bear market. Notice now the consensus thinks we need to go lower. 2)The pandemonium school tends towards the view that the heavy declines of the past couple of months qualify as capitulation. Todays action over the last several months very similar to 1974 chinese water torture... week after week relentless selling. 3)"Capitulation is when no one's interested in calling a bottom," said Tony Dye, a well-known value investor and head of hedge fund firm Dye Asset Management. I don't see people trying to call the bottom today like they did a month or two ago and I was as guilty as the next trader in this fiasco. Now more are asking how much lower do we have to go. 4)Most investors agree that considerable value is found when the bottom is reached, and many are finding it right now. This is the most important message of the report - There is considerable value to be had NOW in the right stocks of the new bull market. 5)The post-apocalyptic camp doesn't hold out much near-term hope for the markets. But the pandemonium school isn't convinced it's seen capitulation just yet. Which suggests the bear isn't dead - just napping. Both camps say lower still?? And yet... ...the pandemonium school predicts a big rally following a heavy fall... Is it possible that the rally has already commenced??? Best Regards, J.T.