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To: Tommaso who wrote (184037)7/27/2002 5:06:41 PM
From: XBrit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
<<But even at a level of 790, the P/E and [Price/Dividend] of the S&P would be much higher than in 1974>>

I thought the most interesting point Siegel made was: In the past, bad bear markets finally stopped when the dividend yields got high enough to make stocks a good competitor to bonds as yield vehicles.

I think he's right. The past 10 years stocks have become a confidence game... depending entirely on a faith that management is using retained earnings to increase enterprise value and thereby making the company more valuable to a purchaser.

It has become painfully obvious that that faith was utterly mistaken. Most of the retained earnings were either pissed away or diverted to enrich management via stock option scams. Now that this faith is broken, I wonder if the only remedy in the end will be a return to 3-5% dividend yields... one way or another. Seems to me, actual cash dividends are about the only thing that's tough to fake.