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To: augieboo who wrote (47955)	7/29/2002 9:10:22 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

augieboo, when you say "we can't have a good rally unless everybody goes along, and the naz just isn't ready to go to the party" I'm not sure if I completely agree. Some Dow components have already started the party, as GE is up 20% from its lows Wednesday. The major indices don't necessarily have to move in sync for an IT rally, as the Dow can start the party early with the naz catching up later as happened in March '01 where the Dow's rebound preceded the naz' by at least 2 weeks. The $VIX highs also preceded the $VXN highs for at least two weeks at that time. I'm now thinking that unless we get some piece of major bad news this week the Dow will not breach its lows from Wednesday anytime this week.

To: augieboo who wrote (47955)	7/29/2002 9:22:59 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

Augie, Sir: good to see you over here, and thanks for the charts and the thoughts. When you say <<And if all we're going to get is another 150 one-three day wonder, why bother calling it a rally? Why not just call it a chance to reposition some shorts?>> Perfectly valid point. But first of all, today is day 4! <g> Also, when 150 points is 13%, I have to call it a rally. 13% is above historical returns, ya know. Probably will be going forward, too, I betcha. Certainly Bobcor is right that if one believes in the bear, then one shouldn't let these blip ups keep you from losing sight of the larger picture. I'm not arguing that. However. . . What's your take on the BPOEX or INDU or even SPX charts? Don't they show possible bottoming action? the freep, who admits he'll likely be shorting some on this gap up, but probably all in techs (okay, maybe a few banks) and not with the vigor of May and June.