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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3563)	7/31/2002 11:09:58 AM
From: tonka552000	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

JW...given the GDP revisions down, would that imply the current account deficit has grown (as a % of GDP)...?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3563)	7/31/2002 11:37:59 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Message 17817801

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3563)	7/31/2002 11:41:35 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Crude Oil Rises 3% as Traders Expect Further Fall in Reserves By MARIE C. SANCHEZ DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK -- Crude-oil prices jumped 3% as traders bet on potentially bullish developments and looked ahead to another weekly decline in the U.S. reserves of petroleum supplies. The September crude-oil contract popped 81 cents to $27.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, closing near the day's high. Weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, released after the close of trading, were expected to show a substantial draw in crude-oil and gasoline stockpiles. "Crude stocks have been falling; gasoline demand has been spectacular week in, week out," said John Kilduff, senior vice president at Fimat USA Inc. "It's a critical report with this Iraqi backdrop." Iraq took center stage, courtesy of a New York Times article outlining the military options that the Bush administration is reportedly weighing against Baghdad. A Worldtribune.com article that Iraqi troops were massing on the border with Kuwait and had placed Kuwaitis on a state of heightened alert briefly added fuel to the rally -- before a Kuwaiti government official denied the report. Traders also focused on the Middle East, concerned that a suicide bombing in Jerusalem Tuesday could mark an escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after the recent lull. "Traders are realizing that the current price lacks any noticeable war premium," said Tim Evans, analyst at research firm IFR Pegasus. "But crude-oil prices have run through the top of their recent trading range [$27.01 a barrel] on a wave of stronger sentiment, as traders anticipate any number of bullish developments. Anticipation sent prices higher." The buying started at the opening bell, with buy stops, or preplaced purchase orders, being triggered by the Mideast news. Other nervous buyers joined the fray and covered short positions, buying to reverse previous sales of futures. However, many traders question whether Tuesday's rally is sustainable, noting that U.S. military action against Iraq is likely to be months away. Others are concerned that production levels by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are increasing as group discipline wanes. A major tanker-tracking concern reported last week that OPEC, excluding Iraq, significantly overshot its 21,701,000 barrel daily output target by 1.9 million barrels a day in July, according to its preliminary estimates. Non-OPEC members Russia and Norway also are expected to raise their oil production. "The powerful bearish backdrop of OPEC failing to get cooperation from Russia and Norway is setting the stage for a price war," said Grady Garrett, an analyst at Energy Trend Alert, an energy-research firm. "This should start to put a bearish slant on inventory numbers." In other commodity markets Tuesday: SOYBEANS: Futures gained at the Chicago Board of Trade on chart-related buying and with continued worries about the effect of dry weather on the crop. The November contract rose 15 cents to $5.18 a bushel. COTTON: Futures gained sharply on the New York Cotton Exchange on the back of thin but steady buying interest from the commercial and speculative categories, traders said. The December contract climbed 1.85 cents to 48.60 cents a pound. Some support is coming from the poor monsoon in India, which is seen as a risk to the crop there. Write to Marie Sanchez at marie.c.sanchez@dowjones.com Updated July 30, 2002 8:12 p.m. EDT