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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (35489)	7/31/2002 1:10:41 PM
From: jcky	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

<< But in the case of Muslim Extremism, we have a cause for which death and martyrdom are the order of the day. We cannot negotiate with a person who is brain-washed into believing their physical sacrifice will bring them eternal reward (and 72 virgins) in the afterlife. >> Hawk, Painting all muslim extremists with a single brush isn't going to solve the Iraq controversy. Saddam has not shown any inclination for martyrdom or jihad so your argument may stand against certain fundamentalist Islamic groups but it does hold any ground against Saddam. Pollard has argued in his FA essay that Saddam is prone to risk-taking and gambling behavior. As a result of this character pathology, Pollard believes we are likely to encounter Saddam again once he has obtained nuclear weapons. But even Pollard has holes in his argument. I think even Pollard will acknowledge Saddam is rational and calculating, and Pollard has stated in his own words that Saddam's intelligence agency will tell him what they think he wants to hear. So is Saddam's tendency for miscalculations a function of his character pathology or lack of credible information? And negotiating with a rational mind is one, but not the only, diplomatic outlet. Taking out Saddam may bring just as many problems as it may solve. The natural tendency of a post-Saddam Iraq is fragmentation. The Shitte, Sunni, and Kurds will eventually demand their own states and containing Iraq from fragmentation will entail either an indefinite occupation from us or the support of another dictator who will employ the same brutal tactics used by Saddam to keep his empire together. And what are the consequences of a fragmented Iraq on the stability of the Mideast? There are too many variables and too many problems with a frank invasion of Iraq without proof of imminent threat.