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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (86159)	7/31/2002 7:30:37 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: I'm not sure another rate cut will do much A quarter point cut would be of mostly psychological benefit, as a sign that the FED understood what was going on and was doing something about it. If a half point cut were made, I think it would be enough to stimulate an immediate round of refinancings, which would result in a combination of one time expenditures, for those who increased the size of their mortgages, and long term liquidity added to the economy, for those who kept the same mortgage size but lowered their payments. It would also be somewhat helpful to the stock market, since it would drive bond yields lower, making investors more comfortable with stock market returns, and more willing to hold stocks, dismal though stock market returns have been. Real interest rates (nominal - inflation) are still pretty high, on a historical basis, especially for a recessionary period. A rate cut could be of some help. PS - for a good time, visit the Intel thread, where they've convinced themselves that sealing a chip up in a little box reduces its internal temperature - apparently the Intel faithfull have decided that Newton got it wrong with his conservation of energy theory.

To: tejek who wrote (86159)	8/1/2002 12:08:03 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

To answer your original question, yes, I think q3 will be negative growth, so that means double dip is pretty much here. I think the double dip is priced into AMD stock but not Intel. AMD's Q3 will be slightly better (that's not saying much!), while Intel's will be considerably worse. AMD is worth holding just because of book value, which is still over $10 per share ($10.28). If it dropped to $7, I could see any number of companies snatching them up, or trying to. Petz