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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (98290)	8/1/2002 10:26:45 AM
From: Petrol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Agreed, Dale. Then again, don't I usually agree with you? lol

To: DebtBomb who wrote (98290)	8/2/2002 12:53:16 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Nasdaq and Demographics: I suspect that the Nasdaq's period of greatness in the 90s was rooted in the demographic patterns of that period. It was probably the huge numbers of 30 somethings and 40 somethings entering the Market during that period as long term retirement savers that really provided the foundation for the series of great years. The short and intermediate term traders and speculators got most of the attention, but it was the month in and month out deluge of cash going into Funds like the Janus group that made it work for the whole decade. If that is true, the aging of the baby boomers may imply that the Nasdaq's Secular Bull Market is over and a 10-15 year secular Bear Market may only be in its 3rd year. The theory I'm exploring is that Retirement savers move from Aggressive Growth to Equity Income/Blue Chip investments as they enter their 50s. I'm checking data on the most recent comparable period - the mid-60s. It's difficult, because the DJIA didn't perform well in the mid-late 60s and the OTC Market didn't have the same characteristics as today's Nasdaq. The AMEX, which may have been the closest comparable index, did underperform between '69 and '74. What is at issue is whether one should abandon/underweight the Nasdaq in the years ahead, and move to Blue Chips with sizable dividends.