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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25136)	8/1/2002 10:13:05 AM
From: kech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196654

Ramsey - The CSFB report has nothing in it but vague complaints about visibility for 3G. It isn't much of a report really, very brief and just questions how growth can continue without pick up in end market. Tom

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25136)	8/1/2002 11:25:13 AM
From: foundation	Respond to of 196654

re: This is a very strange sequence of events. Indeed. Instead of colluding with companies in setting ratings - like in the "old days" - in hopes of securing value added business, are brokers' analysts now colluding with hedge funds in return for securing their's? In this environment, do they correctly perceive that any negative analysis - however shallow - will be perceived as rigor?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25136)	8/7/2002 11:10:40 AM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 196654

"just because you are paranoid,...i> In the current market environment couldn't one account for this via multiple contraction? Current market conditions could also account for "...get prices must be within 20% of its current trading price..."

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25136)	8/11/2002 12:03:52 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 196654

These analysts must be seeing something that I missed. There's damned little that you miss, Ramsey, or that is ever missed here. My paranoid take: The opportunity to accumulate Q at a very reasonable price has to be kept alive. Keep an eye on institutional holdings. siliconinvestor.irchannel.com Of the institutions reporting on 6/02 (note that not all have filed as of June '02), only Lord, Abbett and American Century have sold. Neither had relativerly huge positions. On the other hand, there have been some major new buyers. T. Rowe Price Science and Tech Fund is a buyer--a good sign. Follow the money, to repeat another cliche.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (25136)	8/11/2002 2:12:52 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196654

The Aug. 12 issue of BARRON'S has two articles that mention QUALCOMM, providing another example of damning by faint praise. The lead (cover) article discusses whether this is the right time to get back into tech stocks and concludes it may still be a little too early. The writer likes bigger stocks, which demonstrates the conventional wisdom: When in doubt, go with the bigger players, rather than the smaller, better managed firms with new products and proprietary technology. The second article in the Technology section grudgingly acknolwledges that QCOM makes a lot of chips, but points out that its technology may be sort of overkill. This is the typical thinking of the Nokia/AT&T types who still aren't ready to admit that CDMA is technically superior and costs much less. The articles are valuable in the sense that they suggest where institutional money isn't flowing--into stocks like QCOM, or smaller ones as well. They didn't like Intel because of weakness in demand for PCs, and because Intel didn't have much exposure to telecommunications. They preferred Texas Instruments for that reason. But what they didn't say was that the fastest growing part of the semiconductor industry was in chips for handsets and flash memory. One of the leaders in flash memory is SanDisk, but it is so much smaller than the largest 20 stocks under consideration in the lead article that it doesn't get mentioned. This is a mistake made time after time by analysts--treating every company in a sector as if the sector problems affected every company uniformly. One has to conclude that the kind of thinking in the BARRON'S articles works against a rapid recovery. For QCOM, the recovery will probably be on its way when the one-time additions from the Telefonica purchase of Pegaso appear on the bottom line (probably in the next financial report). If the Pegaso related earnings for QCOM get reported in October, and if their chip sales continue growing as predicted earlier, the result will be stunning, especially because of the earlier drag on profits of the QSI segment. Art