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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15830)	8/5/2002 10:52:09 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Warp, you are expecting a lot out of the VIX. My observation has been that it usually signals an intermediate term bottom anywhere from 2 to 6 weeks early, maybe more. We are only a few weeks along now, so there's still hope. We've got the obvious revelation that there won't be a second half recovery (again) working against us, and my biggest fear is fleeing foreign capital - but international markets are tanking too so where would they go? The great majority seem to be expecting a short rally that lets them get out before the big plunge at a later date. I've been hoping for a rally to stock up on puts. Are we all chasing a dream? Sharp

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15830)	8/5/2002 10:55:37 PM
From: que seria	Respond to of 23153

Warp: I have no preconceived set of indicators to tell me when to buy; I just look at charts and valuations and read sentiment to get the sense whether a near-term move is an odds-on bet. I consider what most of us do--market direction, TA and FA for the individual stock. If I have a favorite indicator it is the accumulation/distribution line, although you could use other measures of money flow. Above all (1) I remind myself we're in a bear market, in which seeing rallies can be like sailors hearing Sirens; and (2) I routinely use stops now, much closer than before. Edit: In all candor I still like to jump the gun on rallies, but enough bad outcomes in recent months have reduced that tendency. I like to use volume and money flow in combination with moving averages and support/resistance points. I'll consider wedges, triangles, and flags when pronounced, but generally I don't put much weight in them. I'll even consider near-Voodoo such as Fibonacci points on a FWIW basis. I think it is easier to tell when to short than when to buy; must have to do with a bear market. JHR--re: INTC--too many shares & too much market cap for me to go long. I'll buy PMCS, VTSS, XLNX, BRCM before INTC. If I'm buying chips I want volatility. I'm definitely not buying chips now. Cash is good.

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15830)	8/6/2002 8:06:16 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Earning profits has a lot to do with attitude. On the last bounce, several people here had some nice returns in tech stocks, but wanted more. I had made the suggestion to sell the rally, lock in profits and wait to do it again. The response was the VIX was too high to sell. The most important thing in using TA is knowing what the trend is. The trend can be price action, volume action, and it can even be a trend of buying dips or selling rallies. The trend has been to sell rallies and will continue to be that way until the market settles above some major levels of support. If you're not in a "buy the dip" environment, then you're in a "sell the rally" environment. I sometimes refer to this as the "condition of the market." Ya gotta know where you are before you can find out where you're going. <g> dabum