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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (15832)	8/6/2002 12:13:56 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 23153

SEOD, Re: but international markets are tanking too so where would they go? Matratzen money. Re: Are we all chasing a dream? More akin to an illusion.

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (15832)	8/7/2002 7:47:30 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Sharp: <<My observation has been that it usually signals an intermediate term bottom anywhere from 2 to 6 weeks early, maybe more. We are only a few weeks along now, so there's still hope.>> I had understood that a VIX climax typically coincided with a bottom. <<The great majority seem to be expecting a short rally that lets them get out before the big plunge at a later date. I've been hoping for a rally to stock up on puts. Are we all chasing a dream?>> I suspect that the rally may be greater than expected, due to the visciousness of the selloff. It all depends on when the hedge funds decide to give up the short side and engineer a rally. I did some analysis on volatility today. This is based on the $NYA and the Volatility formula Volatility = (Daily Hi - Daily Lo) / Previous days close. I used a 10DMA of Volatility and studied data back to 1970. Results: Period Oct 1987: 26 days with 10DMA > 2% 17 days 10DMA >3% 12 days > 4% 9 days > 5% 7 days >6% 4 days >7% This is the standard by which other crashes are measured (since 1970 at least), as far as NYA is concerned. July/August 2002 25 days > 2% (and counting) 12 days >3% 1 day > 4% There were no other occasions dating back to 1970 where the 10-DMA of volatility exceeded 4%. Even 3% readings are quite rare. Others: 1998 Sept >2% 19 days >3% 8 days 1998 Oct >2% 17 days >3% 1 day Mar/Apr 2001 >2% 21 days Sept/Oct 2001 >2% 12 days (surprised??) April 2000 >2% 10 days Mar 2000 >2% 8 days Oct/Nov 97 >2% 11 days Oct 90 >2% 2 days Oct 89 >2% 3 days Jan 88 >2% 10 days Oct 82 >2% 2 days Aug 82 >2% 7 days Oct 74 >2% 8 days