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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (4647)	8/6/2002 8:18:39 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Hi Jay, the point that the future for these companies is not as bright as it was at other troughs. I saw an industry report a little while back that stated that the number of computers sold in the next 10 years will outnumber all those sold to date; and PC's now make up only 25% of the industry total! Even if they are off the mark by a little, calling this a sector which has seen its best years is foolish IMO. That's comparable to calling GE fully valued after the 1920's. Just because a company reaches a certain level, does not preclude healthy growth going forward, especially off the depressed levels where we currently are. BK

To: orkrious who wrote (4647)	8/6/2002 9:55:08 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

ork, you're mixing 'previous troughs' and 'bubble days' and 'the future is not as bright' is guess work. Besides, published PSR values are unreliable because we don't know their input numbers. I calculated AMAT '98/'99 lowest trough PSR from scratch as being 2.4 Message 17840283 Gottfried

To: orkrious who wrote (4647)	8/6/2002 10:09:36 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

RE: "...the future for these companies is not as bright..." I believe that the future for the technology companies I am invested in has never been as bright. The "bubble" was a huge misstep on the road to the future, but "dot.com" was Model T stuff compared to what we will see. I don't expect the excessive valuations of the "bubble", but revenues, earnings, and stock prices will exceed bubble highs in 5-6 years. Note: my predictions about semi-equips NOT taking out 9/11 lows were WRONG (except for KLAC and ASML, so far). I was far less confident about that than I am about the above.