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To: MythMan who wrote (186431)	8/7/2002 3:45:51 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Mytholaneous, this is more impressive than the other ramps as it was totally the PPM without help from da sheep.

To: MythMan who wrote (186431)	8/7/2002 3:55:04 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

"more REASONABLY traded"??? lol... think again...

To: MythMan who wrote (186431)	8/7/2002 3:55:30 PM
From: stan_hughes	Respond to of 436258

Let me know if you discover the location of the guy who pushes the button to start these programs, because that's the only thing that accounts for this type of trading. Bonds close up, new closing data goes into the stock model, the model says stock PVs have improved, program says buy stocks. Simple enough. Last guy into stocks gets stuck holding the bag when the rates start to go the other way. We don't need people anymore, we just need to ask the computer to tell us what something is worth. See anything dangerous in that? I do

To: MythMan who wrote (186431)	8/8/2002 7:44:12 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 436258

Myth: Ahem,... My last post on July 19 (181563) indicated that I was lightening up and looking for a bounce starting on the following Monday or Tuesday. As always, a bit "early", but close enough to avoid further wounds on an already well-scarred butt. I cleared out totally before heading off to Oshkosh and have stayed on the sidelines ever since. I think this rally will display some legs, and for that, I will be thankful as it will dilute the "over-sold" pressure. Of late, aside from trying to keep the research effort in high gear, I have been trying to ascertain how the market will interpret and react to the coming "CEO-sign-off" scene, as I think this is going to be a very important event. Here is what I expect, but I would also like to hear any of you comment on this, particularly if you see things differently. By mid August, as we all know, all CEOs will have to sign off on their reported numbers. The lobbying effort to forestall this has been significant, but so far, the SEC has remained firm. If and when they do, we are going to witness a good deal of "restating of past earnings" (the term "earnings" of course referring to the huge pile of refuse heaped on the investing public over the last few years). What is important for all of us to recognize is that most companies will use this event as an opportunity to not only clean up their smelly books, but also to write off EVERYTHING in the process. I trust the irony of such an occurrence does not escape our collective notice,.... here we have the SEC forcing these rodents to clean up their accounting toilet bowls, but in the process providing them with a superb opportunity to use "aggressive" accounting to once again jazz up their future earnings. Keep in mind that, as I have noted many times in the past, whenever a large write-down is taken, the numbers reported in the follow-on few quarters will be stellar, as all of the costs associated with excess inventories, etc., disappear, which means that the reported profits will improve. I would bet my house against a bag of donuts that this will occur (even though it flies in the face of what the SEC is trying to accomplish, i.e., cleaner accounting). I also would give large odds on a wager that the analysts will be out there trumpeting the fact that the collective books have now been cleansed of past improprieties, hence all investors can feel safe entering the (still shark-infested) waters once again. What a hoot! At this end, I have been quietly digging into this situation for the last few weeks and have increasingly come to the conclusion that being short as this event transpires could be worse than dangerous. I expect that I will remain "in the weeds" for a while as events unfold. Not that I think we have reached the "bottom", as I still expect a complete trashing of this bloated tulip before we can once again invest intelligently. That said, bear market rallies can be a wondrous thing and if the "boyz" all decide to "clean house" with abandon, (and they will, knowing that all of their cohorts will be doing the same thing), a very potent impetus for some real upside fireworks will have been put in place. Might things work out differently than postulated above? Yes indeed. The risk to being completely clear of short positions is that the investing public decides to interpret the massive write-down event as evidence of "more Enrons" and head for the exits enmasse. The assumption at this end is that the sheep are still more imbued with hope than with despair, and hence will listen to the analysts as they forecast (this time quite accurately) a rise in earnings. I intend to remain disciplined and cautious as this whole thing unfolds. A marvellous opportunity to whack them again may well come to hand as a result. Best, Earlie