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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (2241)	8/10/2002 12:43:34 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

With that analysis, you could easily qualify for a job as Hickey's assistant. On the top 10 list, do you think that all companies have the same percentage revenues from Semi Cap Equipment, Services and other lines of business? Do you expect all product lines in all companies to perform identically at all stages in the cycle? Might it be possible that Canon, Nikon, TEL, Hitachi, etc. have substantial revenues not associated with the equipment market? Is there any difference between AMAT's revenue curve on this downturn compared with prior downturns. Facile comparisons of gross undefined numbers seldom lead to wise investing decisions. But you're a big boy. Use whatever assumptions work best for you.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (2241)	8/10/2002 12:53:19 AM
From: StanX Long	Respond to of 25522

Sarmad, just a thought, I’ve read the many comments about AMAT loosing business at a greater rate then the others in the group. Just one thought as to why this might be true. Could it be that with Applied Materials being a supplier of a greater portion of the total FAB tool, they’re hit harder. An Example, During the good times a man would go and buy from his favorite “large” furniture store. There he buys everything needed to refurnish his master bedroom. Buying the total package the man gets a great price including a discount. A month later he goes back to the same large furniture store and buys everything needed to refurnish his living room. Again getting a great package deal. Now after loosing his job, the man still wants some improvements in his house. But now he can’t buy everything at once like in the past and not doing so he doesn’t get a great deal. The large store salesmen knows the man as a big spender, so next time he comes in to buy furniture for his den the salesman is surprised by the man buying only one table. No special deal for the man as he is buying only one piece of furniture. Now the next month the man wants to buy another chair, but now its only one chair. He remembers that the last time the large furniture store’s salesman did not give him any discount and the man felt odd trying to explain his situation to the salesman. So now for this next chair the man goes to the chair “only” store. There the salesman is happy to sell him one chair, they do it all the time. And the man gets a discount. This time, the man buys one chair, feels good about the deal, and the salesmen didn’t question why he is not spending more. Buying one chair at the chair store felt a lot better than buying one table at the large furniture store. Now he needs to buy a bookshelf. The man still isn’t working, so now he goes to the Nude Furniture store and buys just the basic bookshelf without even a stained finish. The large furniture store doesn’t even offer a nude / unfinished bookshelf, only the deluxe models. Without an improvement in the man employment, the next piece of furniture may come from the second hand store, again the large furniture store doesn’t support used products. The man would love to buy everything at once all new and shinny finishes. But if a used piece of capital equipment can be bought at ½ the cost of a new product, while still doing the same job as the new, what he going to buy and where, not the large furniture store with the large overhead cost structure. Bill and Bob’s Used Equipment Store has two year old etchers for next day delivery. Where is the unemployed Chipmaker going to buy the basic stuff, no frills? Just an idea. Stan

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (2241)	8/10/2002 7:40:11 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

AMAT's fiscal quarter is far off from some of the other companies, which may give misleading results. I haven't checked as to how that top ten was compiled. Not to mention, some of these top ten companies do not compete in the same markets. FWIW, here is the tally for the first fiscal quarter 2002 for NVLS, LRCX, vs. Q2(which most closely resemble the others' Q1 on the calendar) AMAT. NVLS Q1 ended March 30, 2002 -63% YOY revenue decrease LRCX Q1 ended March 31, 2002 -64% YOY revenue decrease AMAT Q2 ended April 28, 2002 -46% YOY revenue decrease novellus.com lamrc.com businesswire.com