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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (22535)	8/11/2002 8:47:40 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I've heard that Hong Kong has suffered great pain of late. My empathy for those of you in the thick of it. I suspect this is part of the adjustment to Shanghai as a key center of commerce. -- Singapore's economy grew at an annual pace of 13.6 percent in the second quarter from the first, more than initially estimated, the government said. quote.bloomberg.com [Edit] from macro-strategies.com dated 7/21 30 day free trial available Bankruptcies topped 10,000 in the six-month end-June YTD period, reported at 10,173. This marks a RECORD HIGH in Hong Kong bankruptcies … a FULL YEAR record, in just half-a-year, surpassing the previous record of 9,151 bankruptcies, set during the 12-months during the full-year 2001. . Further, the 6-month YTD total of 10,173, is virtually TRIPLE the six-month 2001 end-June total, pegged at 3,395. Unemployment rate spiked to a RECORD HIGH of 7.7% in the 3-month period end-June Credit Card write-off rate jumped to 9.04% as of the end-1Q-02, up from the 8.27% rate seen at the end-4Q-01. And with that … the Hong Kong consumer cocoon hardens anew, suggesting that the steep 5.9% yr-yr contraction posted in May, (the 10th decline in retail sales in the last 11 months) will only worsen,

To: TobagoJack who wrote (22535)	8/12/2002 8:59:01 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

>>Cleansing deeply, scrubing painfully, and continue we must, probably for at least another 46 months, because many do not feel enough pain yet. Horrifying to the max.<< Well, Jay, I am enlightened. Your projections of US economic cataclysm spring from your own sad experience on Freedom Rock. HK has lost its relevance, it's raison d'etre. Perhaps you are concerned that the easy prosperity of the last decade is gone forever. Now I understand TnT. I am in Chicago meeting with several of my Shanghai-area suppliers. When I joke with them that in 20 years China will catch the US in economic output, they reply, "no - 50 years maybe - we have many problems." They don't elaborate on the nature of the "problems," but I assume they refer to the difficulties of operating in a schizophrenic totalitarian capitalist system. Meanwhile, I continue to find evidence that, outside of the depression in telecomm and technology, the US economy (service sector, automobiles, housing, construction) is functioning well. No panic, no melt, real incomes increasing, prices of just about every consumable/consumer good falling. Plenty of uncertainty of course, but tremendous leaps in prosperity are made from this kind of price deflation. That's the big picture.