Hello ACF Mike, and a good morning to you as well.
Message 17887820
<<Well, that is very unlike you, Jay. Taking a stand on an issue, I mean. Making a prediction. There's just so much risk in taking a fixed position, doncha' think?>>
Answer: Not really. Yes, but so what?
Message 17887833
<<Perhaps a little ego peekin' through there, Jay? "If only they'd listened to me." Do you think maybe those people might be, could just be.......mindless zombies? Or did Alan Greenspan make them do it? Whaddya think?>>
Answer: I think you are getting upset ;0)
How will my weekend be? The fact that you didn’t ask is all the better for my post:0)
(a)Write note to ACF Mike and try to cheer him up;
(b)Take charge of in-laws’ dog Gobi, an one year old intelligent and playful golden retriever and cocker spaniel mut (maid’s day off and in-laws mucking about town, and my wife will go to jazz dance class and business meetings);
(c)Respond to SI threader’s business schema;
(d)Load “Return to Castle Wolfenstein” PC game – get to flame-throw Nazis;
(e)Wait for Utah/Hawaii/Philippines based buddy to show up and do networked gaming, and experience the many ways to die;
(f)Lunch, game some more;
(g)Swim, game still more;
(h)Talk doom with buddy (he is selling off ranches in Utah, carving up ranches in Hawaii for partial sale, selling off part of pearl farm in the Philippines, and buying gold in HK);
(i)Wait for the wives to show up, then do Japanese dinner at home;
(j)Watch Lord of the Rings DVD;
(k)Sunday boat trip with invitees from Women in Media Club of HK and others;
(l)Talk gloom with ex-British commando pal who leads a large cosmetics company in Asia (his business is actually strengthening);
(m)Lead 5-6 hot pants and sneakers-around-furry-balled-socks clad young women on trek across Lama Island, swim at a isolated beach, climb a mountain, into the center of Sea Food Village, and Party Up Chow Down (“PUCD”) on plain boiled shrimp, deep fried squid rings, steamed sea scallop on black bean sauce, steamed Garoupa topped with scallion and seasoned with soy sauce, crab stir fried in ginger sauce, a few beers; and
(n)Nap on rocking boat to Chung Hom Kok Bay, swim to shore, and nap some more.
I adore deep recessions and shallow depressions, for the time they allow one for all the really important activities of life, such as parties, mating, listening to music, appreciate a long movie, trying out new ideas, and out surviving the next guy, buy his goodies cheap, and tell him why he is wrong, as he is being wrong, and again after he is done being wrong ;0)
Like it says so right here:
Member 7255592
I believe:
“Volatility = friend, Crisis = partner, Lonely path = right way, Survive = to fight another day”
… and I had learnt from:
“Crash 87, TianAnMen 89, Redchip 94, Asian Crisis 97-98, Softbank 99, Nasdaq Crisis 2000, WTC 2001, False Recovery 2002”
and I always reveal my position:
Message 8679837
April 2nd, 1999
… try to pass on my observations:
Message 11621706
October 17th, 1999
… announce my moves as they occur and intentions as they spring to mind:
Message 11703719
October 26th, 1999
… shout “fire” when appropriate:
Message 12355669
December 22nd, 1999
… and pass on my learning:
Message 14981596
Dec 9th 2000
“In a real excruciatingly grinding bear market … will trade at a 50% discount to its NAV … 50-80% downward ride from current levels …Yahoo!s can go down by 50-70% still ... I am as energetic in pointing to the downside now as I was with the upside earlier. Stock pricing is probably 35% fundamentals, 35% psychology, 15% market, and 15% technicals. Fundamentals have collapsed, perception of fundamentals has sharply worsened, psychology is changing for the worse, market volatile, technicals ruled by the dwindling braves. I have no interest in fighting, and just want to cower in the corner, with shields up, machine cannons at the ready.
Be careful, and think about unloading during the bounce up”
Now, let me tell you about the three great forces in play in the world today:
(a) Manufacturing deflation will pulverize profit, investment incentive, and animal spirit,
(b) Service inflation will destroy savings, make monetary hard assets go up relative to monetary soft obligations, and
(c) Geopolitical and trade conflict will be, net net, more bad news, perpetually weighing on psychology, anchoring greed to fear, street mobbing the politicians, upsetting the investing electorates, producing wild volatility while going downward and then staying down, for a time.
You are free to hope that my observations from Hong Kong are relevant only to Money Rock, but you would be wrong. That is my position.
Have you tried to observe this from Boston, as I have been from Hong Kong? The articles could have been talking about Hong Kong, Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, or, Rockford:
Message 17888576
Message 17888580
Of course you have, because you are a part of the mosaic of the planet-wide conflict, as am I a thread in the tapestry of global investing panic. You just chose to ignore the fact that forces relevant to me are also applicable to you. While I live in Hong Kong, my money is all over the map, still under my care, and some are in your neighborhood.
You have simply not yet, in Fleckenstein-speak, connected the dots. Let me help you. I just saw those zeros pass by overhead and they are coming towards you, loaded for bear:
Message 17883761
My latest disclosure of allocation:
Message 17888598
Chugs and PUCD, Jay |
