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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4473)	8/13/2002 11:44:37 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

you are stuck in the conventional cycle thinking this is not a typical business cycle it is a structural correction in the debt, currency, and capacity world corporate profit potential is just as shitty now as last year OK..but there has to be some effect on the markets. I guess your argument then is that the lower PE stocks won't remain at current valuation. For instance, most of the large Dow companies have debt...and that debt component will start to affect profitability...leading to increases in PEs and/or losses. A reduction in revenue also associated with it. As for tech, even though there is little debt with many nasdaq names, they are already very overvalued and no growth. FWIW- Found this interesting but bearish post on semiconductors (Richard Palm on AMAT thread posted the IHUB link) investorshub.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4473)	8/14/2002 2:25:36 AM
From: surfbaron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

JW: I think the 10 yr Re-Fi hoe-down is about over. Here's why. My mtge broker gave me 6% Fixed 15yr no cash down. I asked what effect any lowering of rates would have. He said $35 P&I for each 1/4 pt. so if GreenEggs&Ham goes to Zero the homeowners only have $200-300 at best cash flow improvement. Game set match. If the world does go to Hillary's Lair and a handjob and unrealestate takes a 50% haircut on mid-range houses I'd be about even.