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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4899)	8/14/2002 7:06:07 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95541

>> Shouldn't the $3B backlog buffer this? Gottfried, In Fiscal Y02Q1 (Q ending Jan 2002), AMAT's revenue troughed at $1,000 m. Their backlog was $2,730m going into the quarter. AMAT's revenue was approx 37% of what they achieved in fiscal Y00Q3. So obviously they had plenty of manufacturing capacity. Yet a $450m drop in backlog (-14%) was accompanied by a $1,732m drop in revenue (-63%). It seems our understanding of the effect of backlog on revenue is not totally complete (as astronomers say about their understanding of the creation of the universe). I think a useful addition to your excellent charts would be a plot showing backlog, revenue and earnings. I started an excel sheet with the info. I'll post the data here, though I'm not sure how well the columns will show. But if you're interested, I'll e-mail it to you. Unless of course you have it already, and I didn't see it. edit. Also, as backlog increased moderately (Y01Q2 to Y01Q4), revenue decreased 25%. Sarmad Fiscal $ Millions $ Millions $ Millions Quarter Backlog Revenue Earnings Y02Q3 3300 1460 115 Y02Q2 3110 1156 52 Y02Q1 2880 1000 -45 Y01Q4 2730 1264 -82 Y01Q3 2650 1333 28 Y01Q2 3060 1909 226 Y01Q1 3900 2731 558 Y00Q4 4380 2920 663 Y00Q3 3690 2732 603 Y00Q2 3180 Y00Q1 2460 Y99Q4 1680 Y99Q3 1340 Y99Q2 Y99Q1

To: Gottfried who wrote (4899)	8/14/2002 9:31:59 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95541

From Briefing.com: 8:37AM Texas Instruments: cautious comments by SG Cowen (TXN) 19.20: SG Cowen believes that wireless risks to TXN are increasing (see 8:31 NOK comment), as co has 25-30% exposure to the wireless end mkt; firm cites the following factors for its caution: uncertain handset demand in 2H02, pricing pressure on components is likely to increase, and a potential inventory correction looms in Q4. No change to ests. 8:31AM Nokia downgraded at SG Cowen (NOK) 12.05: SG Cowen downgrades to NEUTRAL from Buy due to concerns over lack of growth in global handset mkt; firm does not believe that the co will see a return to growth in the mobile mkt until 2004 or that the data upgrade cycle will be strong enough in the current difficult economic environment; cuts 2002 est to $0.73 from $0.74 and 2003 to $0.71 from $0.80 (the latter well below consensus), and reduces global handset mkt assumption to reflect essentially no unit growth through 2006. 8:24AM S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. : The pre-market indicators have been able to work off the worst levels of the morning. The AMAT (-2%) commentary and this morning's downgrade have pressured semi equip but this has been offset to some extent by the favorable earnings and upgrade on NTAP (+14.8%). Nasdaq 100 PMI is up 0.24. 7:59AM Applied Materials cut to Outperform from Strong Buy at USB (AMAT) 13.46: USB Piper Jaffray downgrades to OUTPERFORM from Strong Buy. Although EPS and revs exceeded expectations, July orders of $1.78 bln were below guidance. Firm has lowered its FY03 rev est to $6.3 bln from $9.2 bln and EPS projection to $0.39 from $0.78 (Multex consensus $7.27 bln/$0.60). USB cuts price target from $35 to $15, or 20x calendar 2004 earnings. 7:57AM Business Inventories seen up 0.1% : June Business Inventories will be released at 8:30 ET; the market expects a 0.1% increase. This release is not a market-mover, though it's notable that the inventory/sales ratio remains near record lows, which bodes well for industrial production in the months ahead. 7:42AM Network Appliance upgraded at Solly (NTAP) 7.05: Salomon Smith Barney upgrades to BUY from Neutral after the co beat ests last night; firm was impressed by the co's ability to keep Filer units flat QoQ, grow Filer avg selling prices 7% QoQ, sell larger systems, continue to penetrate the enterprise, and keep costs in-line; also, stock is trading near its lowest levels since the IPO in 1995; cuts FY03 rev est to $885.1 mln from $944.3 mln, and maintains $10 price target. 7:28AM PBMs under scrutiny for ties to drug co's-- WSJ : The Wall Street Journal reports that pharmacy benefit managers such as ADVP and ESRX are turning increasingly to brand-name drug makers for revenues as margins on claims processing get thinner; the practice allegedly raises questions about whether the PBMs are steering customers to more expensive drugs rather than cheaper generics. (Note: both ADVP, ESRX, and others are already facing numerous probes into these charges... see the Archive for details.) 7:22AM AOL Time Warner execs take certification down to wire -- WSJ (AOL) 10.80: WSJ reports that AOL's CEO and CFO decided to certify the firm's financial results after holding last-minute talks with advisors. According to article, AOL's last-minute huddling reflects its delicate situation. If the SEC finds irregularities in the accounting practices it is currently investigating, the executives could be personally exposed to potential perjury charges. 7:12AM IBM cuts more than 15,000 jobs, twice as many as expected -- WSJ (IBM) 71.90: 7:12AM Mortgage applications slip in latest week : Mortgage applications for home purchases fell 5.6% in the Aug 9 week; for the month thus far this index is averaging 363.5 vs 374.3 in July; given the volatility in the series and the still strong level of the index it is too early to say the latest week represents a trend of weakness. The mortgage refinancing index fell slightly as well, but remains near record highs - these refinancings should give consumer spending a boost in the next few months. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t This cycle has barely begun Gottfried. Unfortunately we have hit a rather large pothole. RtS