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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2406)	8/14/2002 8:44:38 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian, the way the upper channel is drawn we have a breakout. 'Everybody' is watching this and acting on it, voodoo or not. The index TA signals I track are based on bp [reminder: bullish percent = % of stocks belonging to the index that have a current BUY signal. You don't need to understand PnF well to appreciate that as the % of stocks with a BUY signal increases, the health of the group improves]. The mother of all indices, bpNDA [bpNYSE elsewhere] has reversed UP into Xs giving a 'bull alert' signal. stockcharts.com [they labeled it different and I have an e-mail inquiry in] bpSPX is in Xs and is here stockcharts.com bpCompq is still not in Xs but rising stockcharts.com needs about 2% more. bpNDX is at 32% stockcharts.com [I post components on buy signals daily on Don's thread. Today CSCO, DELL and another became BUYs. The Dow is 'bull confirmed' [it's been as low as 4%] stockcharts.com The rest of the bp are at the bottom of this page stockcharts.com Read about bp here stockcharts.com But beware of another Nasdaq peak and another decline. Many posters have estimates out. Gottfried

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2406)	8/15/2002 10:52:20 AM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 25522

Can anyone give a TA perspective on this? How meaningful would you characterize this breakout? I have always called TA voodoo, Think of TA as playing the odds. Most of the vodoo stuff you hear is for traders not "investors" and is short term. Traders are only looking to be correct 60 percent of the time. I wouldn't call your chart a "breakout" since it only broke it's downtrend channel. That's definitely bullish but could be forming a different downtrend channel. Look at the uptrend channel that finally has been formed from 8/5 to yesterday's low. As long as that's is not broken you can be bullish. I think the other problem is not everyone is an expert on TA and that definitely includes me.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2406)	8/17/2002 9:25:35 AM
From: Berk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

OT Brian, let me begin by saying that I appreciate all your postings on this and other threads. Because of you and others I have an absolute wealth of fundamental information upon which to make decisions. In return I would like to suggest that you look at some form of technical analysis to help with your decision making. It can not hurt and can help. To put this in context in the mid '70's I became a broker with a major broker/investment banker on WS: heavy in Harvard MBA's with detailed fundamental analyses of the various companies that were followed by a highly respected research department. That was when the DJIA was at 1000. A year later that research department was a joke to the brokers in the firm who by then only followed one analyst: the market technician. Why? He was the only one who had a clue as to what was going on, a bear market that ended at 500. His advice to the brokers had been to sell (or short sell) the stocks the research department was recommending. I don't think that there is any one method that can be relied upon to give us the answers in the market but I think Zeev Hed puts it correctly when he says that if the FA and the TA disagree, follow the TA. By not even looking at it you do yourself a disservice. BTW Zeev understands the fundamentals of this and a variety of other industries far, far better than most investors.