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To: TimF who wrote (19351)	8/14/2002 10:26:38 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21057

Thats why I said it could be a big mess, but just mentioned that I disagreed with the specific scenario. I don't see the scenarios as being worth arguing about. They're just possibilities at this point anyway. The significant thing is there are multiple ways we could end up in serious trouble. And, who knows, we could get ALL of them! They are more dependent on selling the oil then we are on buying it, but then a guy holding a grenade can still make threats even if setting if off will kill him too... And democracy doesn't exist over there. The rulers don't have to worry about the populace's reaction and the next election. They also don't have a free press giving them another side of the story. Screwing the US would be an easy sell- -even at the cost of a serious recession. Anyone remember exactly how long and how total the embargo was? As I recall, all of OPEC went along with it. The non-Arab nations may not have been upset about the You Kippur War, but they were quite willing to take the cash. The embargo started in October 1973 and ended in March 1974: buyandhold.com A more detailed chronology: lgreen.net In 1973, we were dependent on foreign supplies for about 30% of our oil; now it's 50%. eia.doe.gov The good news is that the portion of world oil supplied by OPEC and the Persian Gulf has declined since 1973: eia.doe.gov

To: TimF who wrote (19351)	8/14/2002 10:26:38 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 21057

Thats why I said it could be a big mess, but just mentioned that I disagreed with the specific scenario. I don't see the scenarios as being worth arguing about. They're just possibilities at this point anyway. The significant thing is there are multiple ways we could end up in serious trouble. And, who knows, we could get ALL of them! They are more dependent on selling the oil then we are on buying it, but then a guy holding a grenade can still make threats even if setting if off will kill him too... And democracy doesn't exist over there. The rulers don't have to worry about the populace's reaction and the next election. They also don't have a free press giving them another side of the story. Screwing the US would be an easy sell- -even at the cost of a serious recession. Anyone remember exactly how long and how total the embargo was? As I recall, all of OPEC went along with it. The non-Arab nations may not have been upset about the You Kippur War, but they were quite willing to take the cash. The embargo started in October 1973 and ended in March 1974: buyandhold.com A more detailed chronology: lgreen.net In 1973, we were dependent on foreign supplies for about 30% of our oil; now it's 50%. eia.doe.gov The good news is that the portion of world oil supplied by OPEC and the Persian Gulf has declined since 1973: eia.doe.gov

To: TimF who wrote (19351)	8/14/2002 10:26:38 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21057

Thats why I said it could be a big mess, but just mentioned that I disagreed with the specific scenario. I don't see the scenarios as being worth arguing about. They're just possibilities at this point anyway. The significant thing is there are multiple ways we could end up in serious trouble. And, who knows, we could get ALL of them! They are more dependent on selling the oil then we are on buying it, but then a guy holding a grenade can still make threats even if setting if off will kill him too... And democracy doesn't exist over there. The rulers don't have to worry about the populace's reaction and the next election. They also don't have a free press giving them another side of the story. Screwing the US would be an easy sell- -even at the cost of a serious recession. Anyone remember exactly how long and how total the embargo was? As I recall, all of OPEC went along with it. The non-Arab nations may not have been upset about the You Kippur War, but they were quite willing to take the cash. The embargo started in October 1973 and ended in March 1974: buyandhold.com A more detailed chronology: lgreen.net In 1973, we were dependent on foreign supplies for about 30% of our oil; now it's 50%. eia.doe.gov The good news is that the portion of world oil supplied by OPEC and the Persian Gulf has declined since 1973: eia.doe.gov