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To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (19364)	8/14/2002 10:33:42 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21057

And democracy doesn't exist over there. The rulers don't have to worry about the populace's reaction and the next election. Leaders of non-democratic countries do have to worry about popular reaction. They don't have to think about re-election, but the popular uprising and the military coup are always serious concerns of the non-elected leader. Unfortunately, in the Middle East we have a situation where the populace, devoid of education and whipped up by religious extremists, is often more radical than the leadership.

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (19364)	8/15/2002 2:02:42 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21057

As I recall, all of OPEC went along with it. The non-Arab nations may not have been upset about the You Kippur War, but they were quite willing to take the cash. Yes all of OPEC went along with it, but how many of the OPEC countries cheated, esp. after the price went up and it got very tempting to sell a bit extra at the new higher prices? Also did they sell oil to anyone? Did they just cut off the US and Europe and Israel and maybe Japan? If they did sell oil to other countries some of it would be sold along to the "embargoed" countries. This is what I was getting at with the "how total" question. The good news is that the portion of world oil supplied by OPEC and the Persian Gulf has declined since 1973: That is very important. Also the Gulf states are more dependent on our oil money now then they where pre-embargo. They are in debt, and the oil revenue is almost there only source of money to pay that debt. The people of the region have come to expect having a lot more money and government provided infrastructure then they had in 73 and the governments have gotten in the habit of buying off potential opposition. I also think the US is less vunerable in many ways then we where in 73. We are not verging on an inflationary spiral , and our current leadership probably wont be foolish enough to try out economic polcies like price controls. But having said all of that they could hurt us if they don't mind hurting themselves in the process. Tim