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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9345)	8/15/2002 10:44:21 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 9719

<So while 'give it a rest' may well apply to the tone of my posts, how about (for once) a frank discussion of the psychological factors the created the disaster that is the VD model portfolio. > You mean the psychological factor of running a mock vs real... your right, if it was real I'm sure it wouldn't have remained leveraged all the way down. It should probably have 1/2mill easy in it. dAK

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9345)	8/16/2002 12:10:08 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Scott, do us all a favor and "give it a rest". I have admitted many mistakes on this board and I am sure I will make many more in the future. My partner, Rocketman, has criticized some of what we have done and it should be pointed out that I have made the decisions over the last 3 plus years and take full responsibility, so leave the other guys out of it. My approach is to make long term investments in companies I believe in. I still like AFFX and CELG. Both companies have essentially met analyst and street expectations and have still been hammered. Both companies in my opinion will be leaders, AFFX dominating gene chips and CELG with multiple cancer drugs. I was wrong on Sepracor, on that there is little question. I thought Soltara would be approved by now. I still think it will be eventually approved and will be a $500m plus drug. I also believe the MDI version of Xopenex will be approved and make the Xopenex franchise worth a multiple of the in excess of $500m in revenue it will generate each year. I believe SEPR is massively oversold and undervalued and have no intention of selling it at current levels. Might I be wrong, of course. Should we have lightened the load more when values were much higher. In hindsight yes. We did sell some stocks at high values (MLNM and VRTX are examples) but would have benefited from taking more profits and deleveraging. We also bought KOSP right before the biotech crash. The company's new product launch has exceeded my expectations but the stock has still crashed. Unforunately, for me managing the VD portfolio is a hobby not a full time job. I have a full time job that is a priority and I am damm good at it. I also have a family which is also a priority. There is no question the portfolio had suffered at times for lack of my attention. I have noted this on prior posts. I wish I had more time to devote to the portfolio. We are not getting paid to be professional managers. The idea was to see how some of our picks perform and have a meaningful discussion among biotech jocks. I believe the biggest mistakes we have made are(i) keeping leverage on the porfolio and (ii) not taking short positions. Leverage inflated our returns in the good times and has killed us on the way down. Taking some short positions would have been a great hedge. I shorted CRA and HGSI in my PA and consistently wrote that those stocks were overvalued. We didn't take short positions in the VD Portfolio because I did not want to create an accounting nightmare for CYTO who does a great job of keeping our records. see Message 17177065 I frankly do not think it is fair to judge a porfolios performance in the middle of a horrific bear market for biotechs, just the same as it would not be right to judge us at the end of 2000 when we were us 10x. After todays close the portfolio is worth about $70,000 net of margin debt off an initial investment of $100,000. While not something I am proud of, not a disaster either. Lets see where we are at the end of this year and the year after. The three stocks in the portfolio, AFFX, CELG and SEPR have, in my opinion big upside and limited downside at current levels. I own them in my PA. If we had more money I would buy MEDX and KOSP. Assuming we get some more pop here we will probably sell some CELG and add a stock or two. Scott, with regard to your personal attacks on me your reputation precedes you. You have been at the center of controversy and heated personal exchanges on numerous boards. I have no intention of playing amatuer psychologist to guess what your problems are suffice to say they are profound and obvious to all but you. To my fellow VDers,both particpants and lurkers, I have done the best I can give given the limitations of time and my own ability. I hope we all dig out way out of this bear market and again prosper in a sector that will continue to grow provide a benefit to humankind. V1