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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (50246)	8/15/2002 6:30:40 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

Paul, a quick scan of that data also showed a key date that you missed. Assuming that data was correct and was EOD figures, of course. Most interesting find was: We had a .38 closing on Jan 24, 2002 following a .44 closing on Jan 23, 2002. The market top for the year came on the 24th, intraday, with a near double top following on the 29th Then, as you mentioned, a .419 on Nov 16, 2001. That was expiration day itself. Market went up on Monday, down Tuesday and Wednesday, then rallied beyond that into December. Net impact seems to be, uh, nil. Also .419 on October 22, 2001 -- market rallied until December, and this day's low held until 10/30 when it was undercut by 14 points. in otherwords. . . no impact. How about a .40 reading on July 27, 2001? That following week marked a high we still haven't surpassed. There's .399 on June 28, 2001. The weekly close on the 29th was at 2162. We topped that the following week by 20 points but by EOW were below, and still haven't recaptured this level. (Note that the selloff was about 10% into July with rebounding close to this level. Obviously, 10% then was 200 points and is not now!) The second lowest close I saw was .389 on 5/21/01. That week marked a top we haven't surpassed since. Then again, there was a .418 on April 30, 2001 that had no bearing that I can see. I also spotted two other .41 or so readings earlier in 2001. So they are pretty darn rare. The above doesn't show them as conclusive evidence of anything, really, though there's only been one decent rally after such a reading. That was October 2001. Hey. . . that's a month after the September bottom. Let's see, we're in August now. Hey, it's almost a month after the July bottom! Nah. History can't repeat. Still, at first blush, a reading under .40 seems much more important than the close we got today of .413. That's it from here. I go back to my work after that binge of procrastinating. I'm sure someone will find a better study than this quick look. I'm sure market internals/trends have more to do with the following price action than the equity only put call. And I'm sure I shoulda spent this same amount of time walking Freepdog. . . . the freep