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To: The Freep who wrote (50248)	8/15/2002 6:34:52 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Good comments, Freep. This one seems to sum it up best: "there's only been one decent rally after such a reading."

To: The Freep who wrote (50248)	8/15/2002 6:47:33 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

One additional note. Back in January 2001 on the 19th and 22nd, there were consecutive readings of .42. That also marked a top we haven't come close to. This implies to me that we should watch tomorrow's reading for extremes, even though it's expiry day (as was Jan 19th), as the two low readings marked the top in January 2002 and January 2001. Maybe it's just the January effect??? the freep

To: The Freep who wrote (50248)	8/15/2002 7:10:08 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

The Freep, these late October and November readings in 2001 were some of the elements responsible for the bad turnips call then. (the market indeed continued to rally till January 9 at 2098, a solid 160 points higher than the turnips best case at the time (1940)). I think that in conjunction with the general reading we got in the period July 1st to July 24th (similar to the period Sep 16 to October 1st 2001), more severe reading in that series are required, thus this time, i did not have an all out sell signal (I still have my bull horns on) but just a potential retrenchment to the low 1300, worse case to the 1263 again. Then we may have like then, another move up before we make a strong local top, IMTO. Zeev

To: The Freep who wrote (50248)	8/18/2002 3:52:47 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

Took a look at the P/C data myself this weekend since I was starting to doubt it had ANY useful predictive value whatsoever. However I have come up with this moderately thought-provoking chart which shows a correlation of 'IT' highs/lows and the 10-day EMA of the equity P/C. The key here is that although the extreme readings in this EMA do not correlate exactly with the price extremes, if the extreme boundaries as indicted in red are hit, then one should be on alert for these major pivot points: marketswing.com You will notice we DID NOT get to these extremes at the recent lows and we are actually trending right back to bullish extremes, although it certainly has more to go.