To: stockman_scott who wrote (4687 ) 8/16/2002 3:10:48 PM From: Jim Willie CB Respond to of 89467 Dollar Hobbled After Consumer Data By Daniel Bases, 8/16/2002 NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar firmed slightly on Friday after a key U.S. consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in the first half of August, but not as much as market rumors had anticipated. The University of Michigan's preliminary August reading of consumer sentiment slipped more than expected to 87.9 from 88.1 in July, contrary to economists' forecasts for a slight increase to 88.3. Analysts and traders, however, said the dollar spiked lower on rumors, since proven wrong, that the sentiment survey index would fall far below expectations. "Rumors were that you were going have a much weaker consumer sentiment number, something like 74, which led to the euro rising ahead of the release, but the dollar rallied on investors' relief that the sentiment indicator was roughly in line with expectations," said Rebecca Patterson, currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase in New York. The euro popped up to a session high of 98.67 cents ahead of the report, but quickly had its gains cut to 98.41 cents (EUR=), still a gain of 0.30 percent compared with Thursday's New York close. The dollar fell as low as 117.12 yen (JPY=) before bouncing back to 117.43 yen, a small gain on the day. The dollar rebounded against the Swiss franc to 1.4898 francs (CHF=), unchanged on the day, after having dropped as low as 1.4859 francs. Investors are paying little heed to the Swiss National Bank paring its repo rate lower by two basis points to 0.57 percent (SNB10). Investors awaited the sentiment data with bated breath given the central position U.S. consumers hold in the economic growth prospects for America. The world's leading economy could be crippled by a big and unexpected decline in the consumer sector given that corporate accounting shenanigans and scandals have already eroded confidence in corporate America and financial markets. "I would emphasize that this is a preliminary read for August. If the equity markets remain relatively healthy, and no new shocks like another accounting scandal occur, the (sentiment) index could in fact increase," said Patrick Fearon, economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc. in St. Louis. CAUGHT IN A TRAP Analysts said a rise on Wall Street on Thursday and affirmation on Wednesday of the accuracy of some U.S. firms' financial accounts has put some confidence back in the market. In mid-morning trade, U.S. stocks were mixed following the consumer sentiment report. The Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) was off 0.54 percent and the S&P 500 stock index (CBOE:^SPX - News) fell 0.24 percent. However the Nasdaq Composite index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) was up 0.15 percent. Thursday's Philly Fed data showed the economy could deteriorate further. The report's business outlook index fell to minus 3.1 in August from July's positive 6.6, shattering market expectations for a rise. U.S. industrial production did rise 0.2 percent in July, but the gains were heavily concentrated in the auto sector, spurred by zero-percent interest financing deals, making some economists cautious about the data. "A number of issues are counterbalancing each other -- stronger Wall Street is positive for the dollar but there are underlying long-term concerns about the U.S. economy," said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS Warburg. The dollar also garnered some support after Japan's top financial diplomat Haruhiko Kuroda said the yen's recent rise against it was unfavorable and did not match economic fundamentals. Analysts said Friday's earlier reports showing consumer price inflation at or below expectations and a softening of new home construction last month were non-events for the markets. SWEDES STAND PAT The Swedish crown (EURSEK=) was little changed on the news that the Riksbank held its key interest rate steady at 4.25 percent, as expected by all 15 analysts polled by Reuters last week. "The interest rate decision was fully priced in. Global equity market volatility has fed into the Riksbank's thinking," said Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Commerzbank. The Swedish central bank said that the effects of the fall in global stock markets may prove to be greater than estimated but that it also saw a risk of higher inflation and wage increases in Sweden.