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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17488)	8/18/2002 11:03:05 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 36161

not sure historical oil/gold prices support your thesis.. the following table shows london spot prices and nominal U.S. refiner costs (composite) U.S. Composite YEAR HIGH LOW YR AVG SPREAD Oil Price 1972 70.00 44.00 57.00 26.00 3.58 1973 126.00 64.00 95.00 62.00 4.15 1974 195.00 117.00 156.00 78.00 9.07 1975 185.00 135.00 160.00 50.00 10.38 1976 142.00 102.00 122.00 40.00 10.89 1977 168.00 127.00 147.50 41.00 11.96 1978 243.65 165.70 204.68 77.95 12.46 1979 524.00 216.55 370.28 307.45 17.72 1980 850.00 474.00 662.00 376.00 28.07 1981 599.25 391.25 495.25 208.00 35.24 1982 488.50 296.75 392.63 191.75 31.87 1983 511.50 374.25 442.88 137.25 28.99 1984 406.85 303.25 355.05 103.60 28.63 1985 340.90 284.25 312.58 56.65 26.75 1986 442.75 326.00 384.38 116.75 14.55 1987 502.75 390.00 446.38 112.75 17.90 1988 485.30 389.05 437.18 96.25 14.67 1989 417.15 358.50 387.83 58.65 17.97 1990 423.75 345.85 384.80 77.90 22.22 1991 403.00 344.30 373.65 58.70 19.06 1992 359.60 330.20 344.90 29.40 18.43 1993 406.70 326.10 366.40 80.60 16.41 1994 397.50 369.65 383.58 27.85 15.59 1995 396.95 372.40 384.68 24.55 17.23 1996 416.25 367.40 391.83 48.85 20.71 1997 367.80 283.00 325.40 84.80 19.04 1998 314.60 273.40 294.00 41.20 12.52 1999 323.50 252.80 288.15 70.70 17.51 2000 325.50 264.10 294.80 61.40 28.23 2001 291.45 256.65 274.05 34.80 29 YEAR HIGH LOW AVG SPREAD AVG 370.84 278.15 324.49 92.69 MEDIAN 397.23 300.00 360.73 66.35 2002 HIGH LOW AVG SPREAD Current 327.05 277.80 302.43 49.25

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17488)	8/18/2002 12:36:49 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

oil will be denominated in euros soon, then CRB shoots / jw

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17488)	8/18/2002 8:10:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hello Frank, a long time. Greetings. <<Stillwater?>> Got it via playing selling puts, and have calls written against them. They are just chips to play with, to be discarded when called away, eventually. <<Amplats>> is in my portfolio (AAPTY ADR and domestic SA shares) <<war>> I do not know, but fear that if the US does not go to war, then Israel will go to war and drag in the US willy by the nilly, or Iraq gets its sub-molecular kaboom machine, and then the war that never was is lost. OTOH, I am terrified that if the US does go to war, then there may be a greater war that can only end in exhaustion. <<gold>> is not just about inflation, deflation, zero interest rate, negative equity returns, tepid hope, or even war. Gold may be about confidence in the existing construct of monetary order (fondle a coin coin or bar, and see what I mean;0) Message 17783611 and Message 17845750 <<AAUK>> I already have AAPTY and AU, and given there are AU options traded, I prefer to keep my AAUK in the form of AAPTY and AU and occasionally AU options. Chugs, Jay