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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2541)	8/19/2002 12:39:47 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Cary, fair enough. Gottfried [end]

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2541)	8/19/2002 12:51:52 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Cary, But how can you even come close to guessing what IC spending will be only two years down the road? Things can and may change rapidly. I will use an analogy from my trekking in Nepal. When one is at a very low level in a valley, it is more difficult than anywhere else to estimate the height of mountains not too far in the distance. Likewise when one is at the top of a mountain it is difficult to gauge the distance to the bottom. Such as it is, and playing this investing game for several years, I have come to the conclusion that it is near impossible to even come close in predictions only a few years out when one is at either the apogee or the nadir in the cycle, as we now find ourselves close to the latter. Brian