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Strategies & Market Trends : Take the Money and Run -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15675)	8/21/2002 3:15:32 AM
From: James C. Mc Gowan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17639

Tom, thanks for all the work on the Bull/Bear cases. I personally enjoyed the Bear analysis. This time reminds me more of late 1998 with LTCM/Russian Bonds default/Asian Tigers meltdown, when the day was saved by Unkle Al, with that mid session rate cut and the pumping went on, and on, all the way through Y2K and the Top. Now, the market is falling out of favor with the masses. Housing is IN. Question is: can Unkle Al keep the Housing Bubble going to prop up the economy, or are we beginning the Japanesque deflationary death spiral. They had a nice real estate bubble, too. Market down first, then real estate. I saw Unkle Al and the PPT boyz at work late July, at the Turn 7/24. How much do they have left. Suppose it's up to us consumers, again. Get out there and refi, dammit,gggggg James

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15675)	8/21/2002 7:16:17 AM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17639

Low interest rates stimulated consumer spending. This means that future sales were cannibalized and that the consumer now has less buying power and more risky debt. Any consumer driven rally is toast. but trouble is that the rascals shop till they drop , and they are all living longer ! Few more retailers today with ELBO ,Perry Ellis, Van Huesen and they were all hot and bothered by HD yesterday and LOW ... GS iniating coverage here for GPS ANF AEOS PLCE CHRS CLE GYMB LTD TOO and even SHRP NEWP kicks off the warnings season , and surprises by guiding down after it mysteriously bids up all day. I will be amazed if they can get the Semis going here at all, some more warning will assuredly be coming out of them in the next few weeks. But things can always diverge in the near term. ( i'm bearish here too ...thanks for the good work JXM) ;-)