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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4978)	8/21/2002 10:56:47 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

Don, I agree that the major impetus behind cutting ratings in the group is to allow the "houses", and their customers, to find lower entry points from which to buy longer term positions. That being said I think the VIX is still stretched a bit too much below its 10 day moving average which should cause some further selling in the group as it continues to rise. The fact that the VIX rose so high last month and now has dropped substantially suggests that investors are willing to accept a slower recovery, possibly even a double dip recession, to buy these stocks at much lower levels than we saw earlier this year. Unfortunately it seems every day we get another downgrade or company admission that business is not as good as had been expected. How much more consolidation we get before the NASDAQ and SOX take another shot at moving higher is anyone's guess but I suspect that this latest run is over after failing to move above 1400 again this morning on the NASDAQ. Just my opinion, RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4978)	8/21/2002 11:35:17 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Chips bounce as AMD helps set pace marketwatch.com By August Cole, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 10:34 AM ET Aug. 21, 2002 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Applied Materials led a rebound Wednesday morning that took hardware stocks higher after the prior session's declines. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX: news, chart, profile) rose 2.7 percent while the Goldman Sachs Hardware Index ($GHA: news, chart, profile) gained by 0.9 percent. Among chipmakers, AMD (AMD: news, chart, profile) rose 33 cents to $10.52. Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile), the world's biggest chipmaker, rose 22 cents to $19.19. In the latest in a series of such moves by Wall Street analysts, SG Cowen's Mark Grossman cut his third-quarter revenue estimate for Intel because of a lack of evidence of a "normal" back-to-school season for technology sales. Grossman now expects sequential quarterly revenue growth of 4 percent or higher, down from expected growth of less than or equal to 6 percent previously. That forecast could be revised higher if strong back-to-school sales materialize in September or if information-technology spending begins to pick up as the year winds down, according to the analyst. Chip-equipment stocks also charged higher with the sector's biggest player, Applied Materials (AMAT: news, chart, profile), setting the pace. Shares rose 55 cents to $15.58. Teradyne (TER: news, chart, profile) and Novellus Systems (NVLS: news, chart, profile) also advanced in the chip-equipment segment. The latest measure of demand in the sector showed that chip-equipment industry orders fell in July for the first time in nine months, according to Merrill Lynch. The book-to-bill ratio fell to 1.16, down from June's 1.26 level. Full story. Still, that decline was not as bad as feared, and Merrill's analysts said that it should have a "neutral" effect on the sector's shares. PC stocks traded higher with the exception of Apple Computer (AAPL: news, chart, profile), which notched a 4-cent decline to $15.87. Dell Computer (DELL: news, chart, profile) rose 5 cents to $27.75. Banc of America analysts commented on Dell's plan to sell no-name desktop PCs to computer resellers. They noted that the move comes in part from the company's need to find new areas to grow into its current stock valuation. See Market Pulse. The chips are trying the best they can to stay higher. Maybe another run at 1400 on the NASDAQ is coming? Yahoo SOX Detailed Quotes: finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^VIX+^IXIC&d=t Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Stocks: finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+QQQ+^VIX&d=t