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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4991)	8/21/2002 5:12:15 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95411

General Commentary From Briefing.com: Updated: 22-Aug-02 The indices have begun to take shape again so that a near-term technical assessment is no longer an exercise in futility -- that's a good thing. Note that each of the three major averages found support Tuesday at their 50-day simple moving averages -- and they each held support on a closing basis as well. Over the prior six-month time frame, there are a limited number of cases in which even the most obvious support points held on the close. So what are the areas to watch from here? On the Nasdaq, there are now three significant areas to watch for downside support. The first is its 50-day simple moving average around 1371 which also happened to serve as yesterday's intraday low. Support around 1354 is the next area to watch as this served to confirm the highly debated double bottom pattern. This makes the final area to watch the index' 20-day exponential moving average around 1335. Each of those support points is relatively notable -- each is also reasonably obvious which is why the technical outlook is quite a bit different than it has been over the prior six months. To the upside, look for the most significant overhead in the range of 1419 to 1423. This area is notable as it coincides with three points of interest over the prior five years -- 1) the September 11th-induced reaction lows which bottomed at 1,423, 2) the reaction lows of October 1998 which bottomed at 1,419 and 3) the ordinary course of its original uptrend during the Summer of 1997. Looking towards the remainder of the week, there is almost nothing in terms of identifiable catalysts. In the absence of catalysts, the general rule is that near-term direction favors a continuation of the recent trend -- which suggests the near-term bias should be higher in the present case. With the markets coming up on former five-year lows as resistance, you have to ask yourself whether there may not be room for a significant move higher. Note that the Nasdaq's 200-day simple moving average currently rests just over 1700. For the time being, we'll ignore the potential magnitude of any follow through and simply leave our view as 'the bias remains higher.' Just be aware that strange things can happen in heavily shorted markets, and even bear market traps can take on the appearance of a sizeable rally. Mike Ashbaugh Heck of a nice day to be long Don. RtS