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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (13608)	8/22/2002 7:32:14 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

It's bearish because it's a sign of complacency.... too many people on the same side of the boat.... long without fear of going down. But the put/call has been trending higher for the last two years and it can stay low or go lower for a while. The moving averages prove that it's been trending higher since the peak of naz when it was quite low. stockcharts.com[m,a]dacayyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Another day or two like today and it will surely go even further south and as you can see when it gets even lower than here the market has put in at least a temporary high. stockcharts.com[m,a]dacayyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Since it seemed as if everyone was watching sentiment indicators for a bottom, I'm assuming they are watching this one too and it could be a self fulfilling prophecy with institutions deciding to take some money off the table on recent winners, but who really knows? Market has been incredibly strong. I was pretty sure we must have seen lots of short covering at the lows with all that volume but since the NYSE short interest data came out and there was even more open shorts after the decline, it can only mean two things... either there was lots of short covering and then reshorting (not believing the rally) or just plain buying as opposed to lots of short covering. My guess is that newbie shorts decided this was yet another bear rally and jumped in and are trapped. But it can get too overdone on the long side too. In this market.... we could move up to the highs seen in the beginning of the year on pure momentum or we could suddenly sell off like in July. However.... I think the shorts will cover (if they're smart) and the buybacks announced will put in a cushion to the downside. TA