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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5092)	8/23/2002 12:42:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Bonds on the Rich Side, a CBSMWatch article AVOIDING A BOND MARKET TOP by Deborah Adamson marketwatch.com a couple excerpts: "I think Treasurys are on the rich side," said Mark Kiesel, manager of several Pimco bond funds. "Real yields (after inflation) are not that appealing. We're near 30- to 40-year lows." Since the outlook is for higher interest rates and inflation, some strategists argue that the Treasury market has seen its peak. "I think it's topped," said Mike Norman, publisher of the Economic Contrarian Update who told his readers Thursday to short Treasury bonds because he expects a selloff of "major proportions" to unwind two years of bullishness. He cites evidence of an economy on the mend that would boost inflation, the traditional enemy of bonds: Three quarters of increased business spending, a strong housing market, retail sales holding up, oil at an 18-month high, higher grain prices and a falling dollar that makes imports more expensive. In addition, the government has to borrow more money to finance the deficit. That means issuing more debt, which would increase supply and lead to lower prices. ME: I dont see the increased biz spending nor housing to sustain, but the rest are solid reasons against bonds here as money comes out of bonds, it traditional goes into stocks MAYBE NOT THIS TIME SO MUCH, AS GOLD RISES and as problems mount in the banking and financial sector / jim