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To: CharlieChina who wrote (56705)	8/23/2002 2:49:44 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 62347

Easy, Nick. You're opinions are of value. But this is a daytrading thread. We chase motion here. Could be up or down. I hang out on the precious metals threads because I like them for the long haul, but it has little relevance on this thread. Besides, no one can predict what markets will do. If cycle theories really worked, more and more people would trade them, taking things to a new ball game. That's what got LTCM into initial trouble. Other hedge funds popped up doing similar things and LTCM's strategies got riskier. Just my opinion. Stay fresh. Try to anticipate, but respond to events. CD

To: CharlieChina who wrote (56705)	8/23/2002 3:09:47 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62347

Well If S&P 500 cracks below 931 than I will publicly admit that I was wrong, that price point is critical to the larger move. I have Aug 29 as a high, but could be a lower retest high. Your Measurement of 9250 is an important neckline , as well as a AB= CD from the lows (9259 to be exact).

To: CharlieChina who wrote (56705)	9/10/2002 11:08:11 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62347

Hey Nich , just came accross this , Interesting stats so far . cdc.gov ONE HUNDRED AND ONE NEW CASES REPORTED 9-10-02. (That's right, in a single day) Aug 8 there was : Total human cases 113 Total human fatalities 5 - LA Today there are now : Total human cases 1086 Total human fatalities 45 In the previous three years... 1999 = 62 cases & 7 deaths (in NY) 2000 = 21 cases & 2 deaths (in NY) 2001 = 62 cases & 9 deaths West Nile Virus Update Daily Case Count Archive* September 10, 2002 Alabama 14 Arkansas 6 California 1 Connecticut 3 District of Columbia 1 Florida 6 Georgia 6 Illinois 268 Indiana 42 Iowa 1 Kentucky 12 Louisiana 222 Maryland 5 Massachusetts 7 Michigan 49 Minnesota 5 Mississippi 122 Missouri 75 Nebraska 15 New Jersey 2 New York 19 North Dakota 4 Ohio 83 Oklahoma 3 Pennsylvania 1 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 10 Tennessee 20 Texas 67 Virginia 5 Wisconsin 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 1086 Total human fatalities 45 - GA (2), IL (10), KY (2), LA (9), MI (3), MO (1), MS (3), ND (1), NE (1), NY (2), OH (5), TN (4), TX (1), WI (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 9, 2002 Alabama 14 Arkansas 6 California 1 Connecticut 1 District of Columbia 1 Florida 4 Georgia 6 Illinois 224 Indiana 14 Iowa 1 Kentucky 10 Louisiana 222 Maryland 4 Massachusetts 5 Michigan 47 Minnesota 5 Mississippi 119 Missouri 67 Nebraska 15 New Jersey 2 New York 19 North Dakota 4 Ohio 78 Oklahoma 3 Pennsylvania 1 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 10 Tennessee 20 Texas 67 Virginia 5 Wisconsin 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 985 Total human fatalities 43 - GA (2), IL (9), KY (2), LA (9), MI (3), MO (1), MS (3), ND (1), NE (1), NY (2), OH (5), TN (4), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 6, 2002 Alabama 14 Arkansas 5 California 1 Connecticut 1 District of Columbia 1 Florida 3 Georgia 6 Illinois 224 Indiana 14 Iowa 1 Kentucky 10 Louisiana 222 Maryland 4 Massachusetts 2 Michigan 47 Minnesota 4 Mississippi 119 Missouri 52 Nebraska 13 New York 16 North Dakota 4 Ohio 73 Oklahoma 2 Pennsylvania 1 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 10 Tennessee 20 Texas 67 Virginia 5 Wisconsin 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 954 Total human fatalities 43 - GA (2), IL (9), KY (2), LA (9), MI (3), MO (1), MS (3), ND (1), NE (1), NY (2), OH (5), TN (4), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 5, 2002 Alabama 13 Arkansas 5 Connecticut 1 District of Columbia 1 Florida 2 Georgia 6 Illinois 211 Indiana 10 Iowa 1 Kentucky 10 Louisiana 222 Maryland 4 Massachusetts 2 Michigan 34 Minnesota 3 Mississippi 104 Missouri 52 Nebraska 11 New York 13 North Dakota 4 Ohio 54 Oklahoma 2 Pennsylvania 1 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 7 Tennessee 20 Texas 49 Virginia 5 Wisconsin 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 854 Total human fatalities 43 - GA (2), IL (9), KY (2), LA (8), MD (1), MI (3), MO (1), MS (3), ND (1), NE (1), NY (2), OH (5), TN (4), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 4, 2002 Alabama 13 Arkansas 3 Connecticut 1 District of Columbia 1 Florida 2 Georgia 6 Illinois 165 Indiana 10 Iowa 1 Kentucky 10 Louisiana 205 Maryland 2 Massachusetts 2 Michigan 29 Minnesota 3 Mississippi 104 Missouri 37 Nebraska 4 New York 13 North Dakota 4 Ohio 40 Oklahoma 2 Pennsylvania 1 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 7 Tennessee 19 Texas 43 Virginia 3 Wisconsin 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 737 Total human fatalities 40 - GA (2), IL (9), KY (2), LA (8), MD (1), MI (2), MO (1), MS (3), ND (1), NE (1), NY (2), OH (4), TN (3), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 3, 2002 Alabama 13 Arkansas 3 Connecticut 1 District of Columbia 1 Florida 2 Georgia 6 Illinois 122 Indiana 10 Iowa 1 Kentucky 6 Louisiana 205 Maryland 2 Massachusetts 2 Michigan 29 Minnesota 3 Mississippi 104 Missouri 37 Nebraska 4 New York 8 North Dakota 3 Ohio 40 Oklahoma 2 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 7 Tennessee 9 Texas 43 Virginia 3 Wisconsin 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 673 Total human fatalities 32 - GA (2), IL (7), KY (1), LA (8), MI (2), MO (1), MS (3), NE (1), NY (2), OH (4), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 30, 2002 Alabama 13 Arkansas 3 Connecticut 1 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Georgia 6 Illinois 122 Indiana 10 Iowa 1 Kentucky 6 Louisiana 205 Maryland 2 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 21 Minnesota 2 Mississippi 104 Missouri 27 Nebraska 4 New York 5 North Dakota 3 Ohio 35 Oklahoma 2 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 5 Tennessee 5 Texas 43 Virginia 3 Wisconsin 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 638 Total human fatalities 31 - GA (2), IL (7), KY (1), LA (8), MI (2), MO (1), MS (3), NE (1), NY (1), OH (4), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 29, 2002 Alabama 8 Arkansas 3 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Georgia 6 Illinois 79 Indiana 7 Iowa 1 Kentucky 5 Louisiana 205 Maryland 1 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 21 Minnesota 2 Mississippi 91 Missouri 25 Nebraska 4 New York 5 North Dakota 2 Ohio 32 Oklahoma 2 South Carolina 1 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 5 Texas 39 Virginia 3 Wisconsin 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 555 Total human fatalities 28 - GA (2), IL (5), KY (1), LA (8), MI (2), MS (3), MO (1), NY (1), OH (4), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 28, 2002 Alabama 8 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Georgia 6 Illinois 71 Indiana 6 Kentucky 3 Louisiana 171 Maryland 1 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 15 Mississippi 91 Missouri 25 Nebraska 1 New York 5 Ohio 24 Oklahoma 2 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 4 Texas 38 Virginia 1 Wisconsin 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 480 Total human fatalities 24 - GA (2), IL (4), KY (1), LA (8), MI (1), MS (3), MO (1), NY (1), OH (2), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 27, 2002 Alabama 6 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Georgia 6 Illinois 60 Indiana 6 Kentucky 3 Louisiana 171 Maryland 1 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 13 Mississippi 91 Missouri 16 Nebraska 1 New York 4 Ohio 24 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 3 Texas 38 Virginia 1 Wisconsin 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 453 Total human fatalities 21 - GA (2), IL (2), KY (1), LA (8), MI (1), MS (3), MO (1), OH (2), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 26, 2002 Alabama 5 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Georgia 6 Illinois 42 Indiana 6 Kentucky 1 Louisiana 171 Maryland 1 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 13 Mississippi 91 Missouri 15 Nebraska 1 New York 4 Ohio 23 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 3 Texas 34 Virginia 1 Wisconsin 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 425 Total human fatalities 20 - GA (2), IL (2), KY (1), LA (8), MI (1), MS (3), OH (2), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 23, 2002 Alabama 5 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Georgia 6 Illinois 26 Indiana 6 Kentucky 1 Louisiana 171 Maryland 1 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 4 Mississippi 91 Missouri 11 Nebraska 1 New York 4 Ohio 4 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 3 Texas 28 Virginia 1 Wisconsin 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 371 Total human fatalities 16 - GA (2), IL (1), KY (1), LA (8), MS (3), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 22, 2002 Alabama 5 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 19 Indiana 4 Kentucky 1 Louisiana 147 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 4 Mississippi 64 Missouri 11 New York City 1 Ohio 4 South Dakota 1 Tennessee 2 Texas 28 Wisconsin 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 296 Total human fatalities 14 - IL (1), KY (1), LA (8), MS (3), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 21, 2002 Alabama 5 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 16 Indiana 4 Kentucky 1 Louisiana 146 Massachusetts 1 Mississippi 55 Missouri 9 New York City 1 Ohio 2 Tennessee 2 Texas 25 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 269 Total human fatalities 13 - IL (1), KY (1), LA (8), MS (2), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 20, 2002 Alabama 5 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 9 Indiana 1 Louisiana 147 Massachusetts 1 Mississippi 55 Missouri 5 New York City 1 Ohio 2 Texas 25 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 253 Total human fatalities 12 - IL (1), LA (8), MS (2), TX (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 19, 2002 Alabama 3 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 9 Indiana 1 Louisiana 147 Massachusetts 1 Mississippi 55 Missouri 5 New York City 1 Ohio 2 Texas 25 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 251 Total human fatalities 11 - IL (1), LA (8), MS (2) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 16, 2002 Alabama 3 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 9 Indiana 1 Louisiana 147 Massachusetts 1 Mississippi 55 Missouri 5 New York City 1 Ohio 2 Texas 25 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 251 Total human fatalities 11 - IL (1), LA (8), MS (2) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 15, 2002 Alabama 3 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 2 Indiana 1 Louisiana 85 Massachusetts 1 Mississippi 48 Ohio 2 Texas 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 160 Total human fatalities 9 - LA (7), MS (2) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 14, 2002 Alabama 3 District of Columbia 1 Florida 1 Illinois 2 Indiana 1 Louisiana 85 Massachusetts 1 Mississippi 48 Texas 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 156 Total human fatalities 9 - LA (7), MS (2) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 13, 2002 Alabama 2 District of Columbia 1 Illinois 2 Indiana 1 Louisiana 85 Mississippi 41 Texas 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 145 Total human fatalities 8 - LA (7), MS (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 12, 2002 Alabama 2 District of Columbia 1 Illinois 2 Indiana 1 Louisiana 85 Mississippi 41 Texas 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 145 Total human fatalities 8 - LA (7), MS (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- August 8, 2002 Alabama 1 Illinois 1 Louisiana 71 Mississippi 28 Texas 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total human cases 113 Total human fatalities 5 - LA

To: CharlieChina who wrote (56705)	11/4/2002 12:02:27 AM
From: CharlieChina	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 62347

Alot of very kind smart people have PM'ed me. Asking if I could provide an update, so I guess I should: 1. Message 16279827 2. Message 17443196 3. Message 17868174 4. The last and 4th Plunge will take the Dow to around 4000 - 2500, but that will happen in a few years, well, perhaps that may come even earlier, we will see. Now regarding number 3: The run on the Dow from October 7, 2002, or so, is a strong corrective trading rally, NOT a sucker's rally, I repeat NOT a sucker's rally. But, a money making trading rally. The Dow has a high degree of probability of springing 500 to 1000 points over then next 5 to 15 trading days. That brings the Dow to the range of 9500-9000 by mid-November, 2002 or so. My timeframe of Dow 5800-4800 by December 31, 2002 to March 31, 2003 can happen earlier, however, the December 31, 2002 TARGET DART DATE might need to be stretched a month or so..I am now thinking February 20, 2003 for GROUND ZERO at 5800-4800. Can you imagine 40% of most, if not all, US Markets will be lost in just 3 months. Yes, 40% loss of value from mid-November, 2002 to mid-February 2003. Make ALOT of money on the long side over the next 5 to 15 days, but make no mistake about...Dow Jones 5800-4800 by December 31, 2002 to March 31, 2003 or earlier. And there is your update people.