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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (5054)	8/24/2002 11:38:41 AM
From: JSLyons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

Hello RtS, Your near-term bearishness for the sector has been right on the money lately. Care to venture some revised/confirmed entry points for some of our favourites? Especially, if we hit or approach your 243 target for the SOX. AMAT NVLS KLAC ATMI KLIC (??) MKSI As noted, I took some profits this week, in ATMI and TRKN. I, too, think we're headed lower and probably should have dumped some others, at modest losses. Sometimes, I just cannot pull the trigger. OTH - I've raised some cash for the next deployment, hence my renewed interest in fresh entry points. Maybe, I'll actually buy and hold AMAT for once ;). Best rgds, Jonathan

To: Return to Sender who wrote (5054)	8/24/2002 3:40:07 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95546

Hi RtS, stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2][vc60][iUi14,3!Ul14]&pref=G Fast Stochastics suggest we've got some downward movement due in the future. What I like the best is +DI has bben above -DI.This is a change in character for the index.Usually the stoppoing of a decline first results in sideways action to the right. I think it is normal to expect some selling as the SOX finds resistance at its 50 day Moving average. Sideways action should develope if we find some support at the midpoint of the BB. A bounce in the 325 range would be a big positive. The BB are traveling sideways for a longer time than we've seen in the entire charts time period. If +DI can resist dropping below -DI or go sideways also - then we've got a fighting chance at developing a higher low. I expect quite a lot of sideways action in most stocks and thus the SOX. Sideways is a good thing - it buys us time to gain strength ( and accumulate additional shares at a great value). The fall season will sell back to school laptops and hopefully we get business to pick up TI expenditures (Orcl seems to be reflecting this as a good possibility)on computers and software. If we get a pick up it will be on diminished levels of inventory(except for HWP and CPQ's stuffed channels).The replenishment of inventory will be at the consumption rate - not the liquidation of overhanging inventory - this means order activity increases in frequency. A replenishment order rate that occurs in a more frequent rate is what business must see before they invest in capex - whether it be upgrades or Capex. During this "show me period" I'm expecting sideways action.Sideways action is another way of saying the rise can't hold. I'm hoping for sideways with false starts and disappointments.Often fear of going lower will delay us from "adding to" at great value. The net result of this market is the bottom is in and fear of new lows will prevent many from great buying opportunities.We need to see failed rallies bounce off the bottom. Always expect a final shakeout - but I think many stocks are once again putting the bottom of their cups and handlss. This makes many charts look like W's.IBD says the time to buys these is when price re reaches the highest price plus 10-12 cents of the peak between the bases two lows. In some cases semi equipment stocks have already completed a w and the breakout from the peak has failed.This is because the Rally anticipated (too early) a return to increased orders. We need more time and boring sideways action will build technical strength.The longer the better. So enjoy the value - save for a final shakeout or nibble at the lower end of the horizontal price range. Our favorites have found breakeven amd they are milking a slow to grow backlog.This is a maintenance of profitability posture and WILL NOT BE ABANDONED until a more robust pricing (shortage of chips) environment developes. I have no doubt it will occur.As most businesses learn that growth in profits is obtained by operating business expense reductions - the webased services vs humans on the road will be embraced by not only the huge corporations goobbling it up now ( like GM GE 3M etc.) but lower tier companies as well. When doing this can be done by non consultant employees - out of the box plug and go - web based services will spawn the next huge growth of networks and P.C.,s just like the internet prompted us to all venture into the plug and enjoy hime computer. Its a ways off - but it's a great time to buy more at a basing price. JMHO Lets hope that middle line in the BB that is going sideways to yes even up for the first time provides some support.<VBG> Bob P.S. since I'm not a stockcharts .com subscriber - could you please add ADX to this current chart(but on a monthly time frame) and link it to SI. I kept the chart you did for me back when we hoped the long term trend line on the SOX monthly would hold (and did). Thanks in Advance!! Bob