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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (14484)	8/26/2002 4:47:39 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 19219

tanks

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (14484)	8/26/2002 6:02:49 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 19219

... on a technical basis, a positive case can be made for an improvement in equities for any coming length of time ... on the other hand, many of the technicals look pretty bad ... ... my view is that the fundamentals are so overwhelmingly negative that technical analysis will get overpowered by fundamentals ... considerable evidence exists that the debt bubble and the huge balance of payment debt (along with other domestic economic issues - profitless recovery, slowdown in consumer spending, lack of improvement in capital spending, general worsening in the employment outlook) are going to slow the economy into a double dip at best ... ... by the end of Q1/2003, I believe the value of the dollar will be much lower, and the US will have entered a serious economic decline that will probably last into 2004 ... I view a weak dollar more as a solution than a problem in that it will help reflate our economy (an orderly retreat will be key - if the dollar crashes, we will be in real trouble) ... ... I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but long term S&P puts, US Dollar Index puts and lots of cash are my personal protection strategy ... ... many bulls think the July lows are safe, but I think we will get much lower than that in the next six months ... ... negative enough, Chip ... <g> Ken Wilson