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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mannie who wrote (5192)8/27/2002 10:25:24 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467
 
interesting response to strong durable goods numbers
Dow futures reversed from minus 40 to plus 70
but the open gave it all back, went to minus 70 on Dow

I found it almost hilarious this morning on CNBC
10 minutes before the durable number was released, Middleton spoke about bonds, and shared a screamer

AVERAGE BOND RATING FOR S&P500 COMPANIES IS JUNK !!!
never before in history, my friends, NEVER
he referred to the widening spread from corp bonds to Trez bonds
he said outright that Trez bonds are overpriced, implying rates are bottoming out
the credit stress to corporate American is MONSTROUS now

then comes the durable goods rise of 7.5%
they revised down even lower the June negative
my guess is this July number will be revised down next month
why do they revise?
because their numbers are a mix of actual data, stupid assumptions that miss every trend change known to mankind, plain bullshit to make the numbers look good for political reasons, and also the incorporation of distortive crapp like productivity, inflation, and seasonality (all of which they have demonstrated zero expertise with)

my main question is simple
ex-autos, the durable rise was still good
but how much is from corp capex?
how much is from housing?

big difference between corp telecom systems, computer servers and networks, industrial widget makers, airconditioning systems, filtration systems, chipfab plants...
versus...
washing machine, television, stereo, refrigerator, stove, dryer, safes with gunracks, jacuzzi

my guess is the durable number is part of the refi and housing sale blowoff top in progress

what is your ducky opinion?
/ jim



To: Mannie who wrote (5192)8/27/2002 3:40:24 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
The decision to invade Iraq now comes down to the outcome of a Bush family feud: Bush vs. Bush.

August 26, 2002

BuzzFlash Message to America's Veterans: Part III

A BUZZFLASH EDITORIAL
buzzflash.com

The decision to invade Iraq now comes down to the outcome of a Bush family feud: Bush vs. Bush.

With the publication of a James Baker August 25th New York Times op-ed urging caution on a war with Iraq, nearly all the senior Bush I advisors have weighed in with warnings to Boy Bush, the Vietnam-evading treadmill runner in the White House. James Baker, who is Bush the elder's family consiglieri, wouldn't publicly air a disagreement with the scion of the inbred Bush family unless Papa was orchestrating a very aggressive effort to undercut his son's brainwashing (which could have been done with a Q-tip and a flake of detergent in one stroke) by the Pentagon Defense Advisory Board "Hawk Cult."

When you add Colin Powell to the list of Bush I dissenters (now persona non grata with the Pentagon "Iraq or Bust" Hawk Cult), about the only Bush I official who hasn't publicly dissented is Bush I himself. Heck, over the weekend, even Boy Bush's Mid-East Envoy, General Zinni, warned against the invasion given current circumstances. Zinni even took a BuzzFlashian swipe at the Hawk Cult: "It's pretty interesting that all the generals see it the same way," he said, adding, "and all the others who have never fired a shot and are hot to go to war see it another way."
(http://tampatrib.com/News/MGA65V9295D.html)

In response to Daddy Bush's PR warning (through his Royal Court advisors) to Boy Bush, Karl Machiavelli Rove leaked an item to the Washington Post that the dauphin was enjoying a book entitled "Supreme Command." In an article entitled "Bush's Summer Reading List" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37785-2002Aug19.html), we learn that Boy Bush is allegedly reading this new tome, by a full-fledged member of the Hawk Cult think tank wing. The book's key message is, according to the Post, "the same as Clemenceau's: 'War is too important to be left to the generals.' It is a study about the importance of civilian leadership and its responsibility to probe and harass the military brass, who are chronically full of reservations about any war."

Yes, you read that right: "War is too important to be left to the generals." That fits right in with the Bush/Ashcroft motto: "Justice is too important to be left to the courts." It also fits in with the Boy Bush view on democracy as espoused by an aide commenting on the U.S. efforts to oust the voter-chosen leadership in Venezuela: "Being democratically elected doesn't necessarily bestow legitimacy on a government."

As the Post article noted, "Bush's disclosure of his summer reading seemed deliberate during an interview in which he was otherwise less forthcoming. As the AP reporter noted: 'Spotting a herd of cattle, he [Bush] says simply, 'Bovine.' Minutes pass before he says another word.'" Translation: Karl Rove wants us to believe that Bush believes that America's generals are wavering wimps.

So we have a recovering alcoholic, with a shady business history, who let other young men die in his place in Vietnam, being dictated war policy by a "Vice-President," with a shady business history, who also let other young men die in his place in Vietnam (as he dodged the draft). The "Vice President" is Bush's handler on behalf of the Hawk Cult.

(As long-time BuzzFlash readers know, BuzzFlash has been repeatedly editorializing since the fall of 2000 about the Grand Hypocrisy Party (GHP) ChickenHawks who ran from service in Vietnam, led by Bush, Cheney, Ashcroft and DeLay.)

About the only prominent Republican who fully supports the current Bush strategy of unilateral intervention is Tom "the Exterminator" DeLay. And what is Tom DeLay's military record? There is none, of course. He has made the absurd claim that he went to "volunteer" for service in the military during the late '60's, but all the service positions were taken up by minorities who enlisted to fight in Vietnam.

No, BuzzFlash is not making this up. See "Of all the ChickenHawks, Tom DeLay Takes the Cake"
(http://www.buzzflash.com/editorial/2002/03/031102_Chickenhaw... and buzzflash.com.

Our military veterans should remember that most of the men who will send our young men and women soldiers to die in Iraq ran the other way when they had the opportunity to serve in Vietnam.

Richard Perle, a prominent figure in the unelected Bush shadow government, has emerged as one of the key administration spokespersons for invading Iraq. He didn't serve either. In fact, Conservative GOP Nebraska Senator and Vietnam Veteran Chuck Hagel suggested, "Maybe Mr. Perle would like to be in the first wave of those who go into Baghdad."

Hagel, urging restraint in attacking Iraq, added, in an interview:

"It is interesting to me that many of those who want to rush this country into war and think it would be so quick and easy don't know anything about war," Hagel, a Vietnam veteran, said in a Newsweek article about a split in the administration over Iraq policy.

"They come at it from an intellectual perspective versus having sat in jungles or foxholes and watched their friends get their heads blown off. I try to speak for those ghosts of the past a little bit."
(http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story
&u=/ap/20020825/ap_on_go_co/us_iraq_8)

But Perle, who heads the Defense Policy Board (which Time Magazine calls "The Secret War Council" time.com, now argues that Bush can't back down from invading Iraq, regardless of the justification, because he has boasted so much of kicking Saddam's butt that he would look weak if he didn't go to war. "The tough talk now demands action, argues arch-hawk Richard Perle, chairman of the Defense Policy Board, a Pentagon think tank. He responded to [Brent] Scowcroft's critique by warning, 'The failure to take on Saddam after what the president [has] said would produce such a collapse of confidence in the president that it would set back the war on terrorism.'"
(http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,339186,00.html)

So now America's finest men and women in the military must go into battle to protect the John Wayne image of the rich frat boy who spent the Vietnam war drinking, carousing and allegedly using cocaine.

George W. Bush has always relied on Bush I's friends to pull his butt out of the frying pan -- and it's been singed many a time. Now that Daddy's war veteran friends are lined up against the kid who's all hat and no cattle, what is Boy Bush going to do?

Bush's own Mideast envoy, we assume, is one of those generals Bush thinks is a whiner. But we'll side with Zinni, over America's "yellow streak" leadership:

"Zinni took a shot at the hawks, noting their lack of military experience. He ticked off several prominent military men who have expressed reservations about the war: Secretary of State Colin Powell, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Gen. Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser under former President Bush; and Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf, commander of operations in the Persian Gulf War.

And as Senator Hagel, who received a 100% voting rating from the Christian Coalition (so he's no flaming liberal) warned: "If you think you're going to drop the 82nd Airborne on Baghdad and finish the job," said Senator Hagel, a Vietnam war hero, two weeks ago, "I think you've been watching too many John Wayne movies." (New York Times, August 17)

Bush is not good at finishing the job. This guy is not a closer. As Michael Sherry, a historian at Northwestern University notes: "Every time bin Laden is mentioned, it's a reminder that they [the Boy Bush advisors] don't have a clue and it's a reminder that the war on terrorism has become directionless and not very effective."
(http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story
&u=/nm/20020820/ts_nm/attack_binladen_dc_2)

Our men and women in the military service can't take political stances or publicly campaign against the ill-advised policies of their "commander in chief," but our veterans can.

Veterans of America, stand up for what you put your lives on the line for. Stand up for America. Stand up for the men and women in today's military. Stand up and demand that the Bush Cartel ChickenHawks, who ran away from combat duty, not determine who shall live and who shall die in our armed forces.

Stand up for those who have fought wars and know the risks of declaring war on behalf of America.

Stand up for the sons and daughters of this great nation -- and their futures.

Veterans of America, we are counting on you.

A BUZZFLASH EDITORIAL

See also:

Message to Veterans Part I at buzzflash.com
Message to the Veterans Part II at buzzflash.com
And Who Will Fight the Way Against Iraq at buzzflash.com



To: Mannie who wrote (5192)8/28/2002 12:29:54 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Summons to War

Lead Editorial
The New York Times
August 28, 2002

With Republican mandarins cautioning the Bush administration about marching on Baghdad, Vice President Dick Cheney grabbed the microphone this week to make the case for war. We're glad the White House is talking at greater length and more specifically about Iraq, but Mr. Cheney failed to offer convincing answers to questions that give many Americans pause about using military force to oust Saddam Hussein. The White House has yet to meet the difficult burden of showing why Iraq's weapons programs, including its efforts to develop nuclear arms, require an American invasion.

No one disputes that Iraq threatens important American interests in the Middle East, from affordable oil to Israel's security. As Mr. Cheney accurately noted, Saddam Hussein has twice attacked his neighbors. He has secretly and illegally developed biological and chemical weapons and may not be far from developing nuclear bombs. He openly defies the disarmament and inspection requirements of the cease-fire that halted the Persian Gulf war.

Unfortunately, the United States faces many foreign threats. These include other dictatorships equally intent on developing unconventional weapons and other Middle Eastern nations that refuse to accept Israel's right to exist. For good reasons, Washington has generally not launched offensive military actions in response to unrealized threats. The risks posed by Iraq may be so unique and compelling as to justify an exception. But that is a case the administration has yet to make. The White House is also obliged to explain why preventive military action aimed at overthrowing Mr. Hussein is the best available response to the dangers he poses and how Washington would install and sustain a new, less threatening Iraqi government.

With all this groundwork still ahead of it, the administration seems already to have decided to bypass the United Nations Security Council and cut Congress out of its constitutional decision-making role. That would be a terrible mistake.

Any justification for attacking Iraq would have to rest in large part on Baghdad's flagrant violations of the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the gulf war more than a decade ago. If President Bush wants to renew hostilities with Iraq, he should seek a new resolution telling Baghdad it must comply fully and immediately with the cease-fire's disarmament and inspection demands or face a reopening of hostilities. There is a slim chance that such a resolution could bring renewed inspections that would at least slow down Iraq's unconventional-weapons programs. If Baghdad continues to throw up obstacles, going through the U.N. would line up international support for any eventual American military action. Washington's lack of interest in working with the Security Council is foolish and has needlessly isolated the United States from virtually all its European and Arab allies.

While Mr. Bush has promised to consult with Congress, he seems to be under the illusion, supported by a recent memo from the White House counsel, Alberto Gonzales, that he can rely on the 1991 vote that authorized the gulf war. That is legal sophistry, reminiscent of Lyndon Johnson's use of the Tonkin Gulf resolution to authorize a disastrous land war in Vietnam. Invading Iraq could involve substantial casualties and possible long-term occupation responsibilities. A decade-old vote is no substitute for the role the Constitution grants to Congress in taking the nation to war.

Mr. Cheney's stern speech suggests that the Bush administration has set a course for military action against Iraq. It still has to persuade the country that war is warranted.

nytimes.com