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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5194)	8/27/2002 10:38:23 AM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

my main question is simple ex-autos, the durable rise was still good but how much is from corp capex? how much is from housing? How much defense spending, Humvees, smart bombs, spare helicopter rotors, etc. is counted as durable goods? Such items indicate narrow economic activity. There are a lot of contract openings in this area for installing GPS in Humvees but overall the job market stinks. 3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Does a helicopter rotor sold to a TRW maintenance contract count as defense spending, or a capital equipment? I think we are getting Bush-speak on these numbers. TP

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5194)	8/27/2002 10:49:47 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

did you look at actual durable goods vs "seasonally adjusted?" Message 17922387

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (5194)	8/27/2002 11:33:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Consumer confidence falls but durables see big jump By Rachel Koning, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 11:19 AM ET Aug. 27, 2002 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The Treasury market digested a mixed bag of economic data Tuesday. When the dust settled, bonds were still weaker but well off session lows after a dip in August consumer confidence countered the huge jump in durable goods orders in July. The durables report supports ideas the Federal Reserve will leave interest rate policy alone for now and raises inflation risks in the eyes of bondholders, should the data portend a brisk return to unsustainable growth. The confidence data served to remind financial markets the domestic economy is still trying to find its legs after slipping into recession. Economists are always cautious about reading too much from one report, particularly given other factory sector reports showing trouble spots still exist. Still, short-term interest rates futures contracts show investors have all but eliminated a chance for a central bank interest rate cut when the panel next meets Sept 24. Spurred by aircraft and machinery demand, durable goods orders placed with U.S. factories registered the largest jump in nine months in July. Total durable goods orders rose 8.7 percent last month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. It was the largest rise since a 9.2 percent gain in October 2001. The increase was much larger than the 1.4 percent Wall Street economists were predicting. A 7.3 percent rise in orders excluding defense is the largest on record, the government said. Orders excluding transportation were up 3.9 percent, the fourth increase in the last five months. A key measure within the report, non-defense capital goods soared a record 13.5 percent last month and excluding aircraft, this subset of the data rose a sizeable 8.1 percent - the biggest jump since January 1997. Get the full story. [BULLSHIT: CHECK SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS, SINCE MONTH OVER MONTH SHOWS A SIGNFICANT DECLINE] Meanwhile, according to the Conference Board, its consumer confidence index stood at 93.5 in August, down from a revised 97.4 in July. Economists surveyed by CBS.MarketWatch.com looked for confidence to be little changed at 97.1 this month. The Present Situation Index also dropped, declining to 92.0 in August from 99.4 the previous month. The Expectations Index dropped to 94.5 from 96.1 in July. Read more. Checking the latest bond market action, a 2-year note fell 3/32 at 100 2/32 to yield 2.21 percent, up 5 basis points. A 5-year note shed 6/32 at 99 21/32 to yield 3.33 percent, up 4 basis points. A benchmark 10-year Treasury note declined 6/32 at 101 1/32 to yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) 4.25 percent, up 2 basis points. A 30-year bond shed 10/32 at 105 3/32 to yield ($TYX: news, chart, profile) 5.04 percent, up 2 basis points. Major stock indices took to a split path, with the factory news lifting the blue-chip barometer Dow before a reversal on the confidence data and weakness for chip issues dragging the Nasdaq lower. The Dow fell 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq gave up 1.8 percent. See Market Snapshot. In the foreign exchange sector, the dollar took a blow vs. the major currencies. The buck, in fact, lost 1.2 percent to 118.32 yen while the euro gained 0.9 percent to 97.96 cents. Meanwhile, the latest figures on federal budget health indicate the government may have to issue more debt to meet spending needs given predictions for declining revenues. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office will project in a report Tuesday that this year's deficit will total $157 billion, reflecting a sharp decline in tax revenues and double-digit growth in spending. The CBO report is expected to forecast a $145 billion deficit in fiscal 2003, which begins Oct. 1. The CBO sees no return to surplus until fiscal 2006, when it expects a meager $15 billion surplus. See related story. The data added to the drag on bonds Tuesday as ideas of increased supplies of notes and bonds would compete with debt securities already in circulation. Rachel Koning is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in Washington.